Liberals sleepwalk to an electoral calamity

This week the Victorian Opposition leader Matthew Guy tendered his resignation. He spoke to the Liberal state administrative committee warning the federal parliamentary party faces an existential crisis. He is said to have expressed a view Labor may be looking at a 60-seat majority in the federal parliament after next year’s election.

That figure is no idle speculation. It’s probably where we are now.

Labor could easily pick up 30 seats at the next federal election and nudge the ton. Add 10 or so on the crossbenches and that would leave the Coalition with a seat count somewhere around the low 40s. Given the Nationals might only lose one or two, the LNP in Queensland say, eight, the Liberals (I’m counting those in the LNP who sit in the Liberal Party room) might only be able to rustle up a couple of cricket teams in the next parliament. No 12th man to help with the fielding. Last man gets his tucker.

A Liberal Party room meeting could be held comfortably in a cloak room. That is, until the brawling broke out. Then it might look like the climax of the Marx Brothers’ state room scene from A Night at The Opera.

If these numbers were realised, it is hard to see the Liberal Party in its current form and structure surviving the post-election internal recriminations amid the white-hot factional argy-bargy. The prospect of an enduring schism is real.

Political parties come and go. Nothing in politics is forever. Prior to Sir Robert Menzies founding the Liberal Party in 1944, right-leaning centralist and conservative parties fell by the wayside every decade or so after federation. The Labor Party, the once broad church of the left, could not bear the stresses of a vast ideological divide within its ranks and split in 1954-55.

The government has lost control of the lower house. Executive government has all but ended and come next year, both houses of parliament will only sit for two weeks prior to an election being called some time in May. Put aside three days for the passage of supply bills and that doesn’t leave a lot of time for passing legislation.

If you listen carefully, you can hear the sound of Martha and the Vandellas’ hit playing in the background. “Nowhere to run to, baby. Nowhere to hide…” Good thing Phil Spector is not running around, eh?

Elaborate furniture saving exercises will be dreamt up. This morning the notion of a Julie Bishop leadership tilt was put about. It was a media construction to be sure but don’t think some Liberal MPs have not thought about it. jhristopher Pyne poo-poohed the idea, saying, “We have a leader, it’s Scott Morrison. We are not changing the leader again.”

Even slow learners catch on eventually.

While a similar state of chaos might have the Shorten Labor Party salivating, it will not be good for our democracy. Good government requires a solid opposition to keep it on its toes. Conversely, if the Liberals engage in factional brawling to the point of blowing the party up, Labor will do as it pleases, and this means bad policy and bad law will get through the parliament without scrutiny or effective amendment.

The quiver is not entirely bare. The Morrison government has a budget which we are told will be a surplus budget, largely on the back of increased company tax receipts. The surplus itself is a selling point, speaking of sound economic management. The economy is spluttering along, rather than purring. The major concerns lie in the property market and this might play against Shorten’s policy to curb negative gearing and capital gains tax exemptions.

The word is the Morrison government will take a leaf out of Dan Andrews’ playbook and spend up on schools, hospitals and infrastructure. That is sensible. A tax cut across the board detailed in a budget some six weeks before an election and thus likely to have little or no hip pocket impact, will look like a piece of Oprah Winfrey-ism — “Everybody gets a car!”

If handled delicately and well, the government might just be able to save some furniture but when we hear stories of the collapse of cabinet government with ministers spending more time contemplating their careers post-politics than attending to their ministerial duties, one wonders if they can pull it off.

Two weeks ago, I went to a barbecue and spoke with a couple of dyed-in-the-wool Liberal voters. One said the Liberal Party deserved to be consigned to opposition. The other wanted Tony Abbott’s political career roughly terminated at the ballot box. Neither will be voting Liberal next year.

It’s a tiny sample size for sure but I was taken by their vehemence and their conviction. I’d suggest there’s very little possibility they will come back to the Liberal fold any time soon. It came after the predictable loss in Wentworth, or at least I thought it was predictable. Some analysts and commentators put the blame on Wentworth’s voters. But then we had the Victorian results where huge swings against the Liberal Party occurred in blue ribbon seats like Hawthorn, Sandringham and Brighton.

Forget the Wayne Goss voters on their verandahs toting baseball bat metaphor. My best guess is voters have already made up their minds and are going to the shed to get the old Gray Nicks out (I’m more of a Gunn & Moore man myself).

The only question that remains is will the punters have nails sticking out of them or not?

This column was fist published in The Australian 30 November 2018.