With two weeks of the campaign underway, betting markets in the head to head show the Coalition’s price coming in.
Aggregated across five agencies, Labor remain firm favourites at $1.25 with the Coalition at $3.95 to win the election. A number of agencies are still offering the Coalition at $4 plus.
Most betting agencies offer the head to head result while only a handful are extending more exotic bets, seat spreads and individual seat betting.
Bear in mind the head to head bet makes no account for minority government. If it is close, hold your tickets because the negotiations over who might form government could go on for weeks. The successful bet pays only when the new Prime Minister stands, Bible in hand, at Yarralumla.
The current state of play has the Coalition with 72 seats and Labor with 69.
One of the reasons Labor is a hot favourite to win the election is that it starts the campaign with a couple of seats already in the win column courtesy of the creation of two new electorates — Bean in the ACT and Fraser in Melbourne’s outer western suburbs. Labor will win both. Add to that the seat of Dunkley in Melbourne’s south east held by the Liberals’ Chris Crewther which, after a redrawing of its electoral boundaries, becomes nominally Labor by a sneaky 1.3 per cent. Labor is heavily favoured to win Dunkley.
So, Labor starts with two and virtually three seats in the bag, giving it 7, level with the incumbent at the starting line.
Both parties need to pick up four seats to form majority government.
The Coalition is favoured only to win two. The markets have installed Dave Sharma ($1.36) as firm favourite to regain Wentworth after Kerryn Phelps ($3.10) won the seat in last year’s by-election in the wake of Malcolm Turnbull’s retirement.
In Bass (Tasmania), the Liberals hold a slight edge to regain the seat paying $1.80 to Labor’s $1.90.
The markets have installed Independent Rob Oakeshott ($1.60) as a warm favourite to win Cowper in northern NSW ahead of the Nationals’ candidate, Patrick Conaghan ($2.20) who fills the breach for the Nats after the retirement of Luke Hartsuyker while Tony Abbott ($1.60) is a the favourite to retain Warringah with independent Zali Steggall paying $2.30.
Labor is favoured to gain 18 seats, four in New South Wales — Robertson, Banks, Reid and Gilmore; four in Victoria — Corangamite, Chisholm, Deakin and La Trobe; six in Queensland — Bonner, Dickson, Dawson, Flynn, Forde and Petrie; Boothby in SA; and three in Western Australia — Hasluck, Pearce and Swan.
Throw in Bean, Fraser and Dunkley, less its possible loss in Bass and the markets are tipping Labor will have 89 seats in the new parliament and a stonking majority based on an analysis of individual seat betting.
The seat spread betting offered by some agencies has Labor winning 81-85 seats at $3.50, 86-90 seats at $2.70 and 91-100 seats at $4.85 as the most probable outcomes.
Earlier this week, Newspoll published individual seat polling in four key marginals, two held by the Coalition — Pearce in Western Australia and Deakin in Victoria and two Labor seats — Herbert in Queensland and Lindsay in New South Wales. The Coalition led in Deakin by the narrowest of margins, Labor led likewise in Lindsay with the remaining two seats neck and neck.
The markets show it close, too, but with Labor in front in all four — Lindsay (Labor $1.72, Coalition $2.00), Herbert (Labor $1.72, Coalition $2.00), Deakin (Labor $1.60, Coalition $2.30) and Pearce (Labor $1.52, Coalition $2.40).
The bookies don’t say how big or indeed how small the individual seat betting pools are. It could be that a wager of $100 one way or another could skew the odds. We don’t know.
It is for that reason and the usual foibles of punting that the betting markets can and often do get it wrong.
The markets in the Victorian state election last year were all over the shop, predicting a net loss of two seats for Labor whereas Andrews and Labor gained eight. In the NSW state election, however, the bookies got the result right to within one seat.
We are at early days in this campaign. A solid argument could be made that the first two weeks have shown the usual sparring between the majors, but the audience is not quite watching at this point while it enjoys a spate of public holidays. After months of an ersatz campaign, the real business will start next week.
One thing to watch over the next 24 days is where Morrison and the Liberals do the majority of their campaigning. At present, the PM has been traversing the country pumping the flesh in key marginals. If internal polling shows a shift in support, it may lead Morrison to sandbag seats. In other words, if the PM is in Lindsay this week but Hughes in a fortnight, it means the Coalition has redrawn the battlelines and is fighting to avoid greater losses.
The betting markets reveal some good news in Victoria for Scott Morrison. The fear the state would become a killing field for the Liberal Party appears to have eased with market movements installing Greg Hunt as favourite in Flinders and Speaker Tony Smith back on the first line of betting in Casey. Similarly, Josh Frydenberg (Kooyong), Kevin Andrews (Menzies) and Tim Wilson (Goldstein) look safe despite the well-heeled suburbs of Melbourne swinging hard to Labor at last year’s state election.
Queensland remains difficult to predict with a mix of essentially right-wing minor parties cannibalising the LNP vote. If preference deals can be arranged with Clive Palmer’s UAP, the damage may not be so great.
The Coalition’s ace remains Bill Shorten. In 2016, Shorten campaigned well and appeared at ease among voters and the media. Perhaps now, with the expectation of victory sitting squarely on his shoulders, he has become nervous and agitated.
At the last election, Sam Dastyari was Shorten’s constant companion on the bus. Say what you like about Sam, but he was a hell of a good campaigner. Now Shorten has Wayne Swan alongside him. The dithering and missteps are right out of the Wayne Swan textbook. Equivocation, uncertainty and lashing out at imaginary enemies.
If I was driving that bus I’d pull over on the shoulder and tell Swan to grab his bags and start hitchhiking.
The markets show this should be a comfortable win, possibly even a landslide victory for Labor. Equally, it is Bill Shorten’s election to lose.
This column was first published at The Australian on 24 April, 2019.
Given their travails over the last six years, it amazes me that the Coalition is in a competitive position right now, as indicated by the latest Newspoll.
It’s time to flick the switch and see if the Shorten haters are right. He may surprise us all if he’s elected.
A loss will also give the Coalition time to regroup and rethink their direction.
It’s time.
Swan in an influential position scares the hell out of me – in many ways he is an old time income redistribution socialist whose record shows a cavalier attitude to deficits.
JB from the previous blog – why parent reunion is murky is the problem with longevity and it is expensive and it can get emotional The bond that has to be put up covers medical costs for the first 10 years.
Any healthy parent 70 or less is going to be a drain on the health system.
I had a couple of neighbours who came out under a similiar scheme – both were is their 50’s.
As soon as the 10 years was up there were a few expensive operations. He died in his early 80’s and she is a very frail 90 something.
As I said,one parent does not matter but potentially, if the scheme runs long enough, the number can get to the hundreds of thousands and the cost depends on the life expectancy of the people involved.
https://www.afr.com/news/politics/double-55k-fee-for-parent-reunion-visas-says-productivity-commission-20160912-greal7.
Carlton fire, 52-21 at ht.
And they got rolled by 5 pts. Unlike a lot of Carlton barrackers, I thought it was a decent effort. They’ve never played at the ground before and it is something of a fortress for Hawthorn. I still see a lot of upside at the Blues although they do need to win another six or seven this year to show genuine improvement.
You say in your excellent Column, Mr Insider: “The successful bet pays only when the new Prime Minister stands, Bible in hand, at Yarralumla”. So true and we Horse Racing people know this as “Correct Weight”.
In a Week or so the Field enters the Main Straight and it will I do think be a longgggg one for Bill.
I am predicting ScoMo on “Coalition” will do a WINX like finish the last 50 Metres and Win! I do believe Bill Shorten is a “false favourite” and the Bookies will take him on.
The pace quickens from now along the Back Straight.
At this point of the race though, “Political Punters” we are ALL on a Potential Winner!
I’m thinking even if you win you lose in this dud card. But Shorten is the worser of the lot!
Shorten in trouble 3 weeks out, not looking good for Bill.
https://tinyurl.com/y2m6j63n