Voters in five electorates will trudge to the ballot boxes this weekend.
The media has decided to run with the puerile Americanism of Super Saturday. I can think of a better nonpareil — the most undesirable and entirely avoidable waste of people’s time and money in Australian political history but admittedly that doesn’t have the same fetching ring to it.
Labor’s Tim Hammond resigned as the member for Perth for family reasons. Fair enough. The other four are enforced, Section 44 by-elections with Labor’s Josh Wilson (Fremantle), Justine Keay (Braddon) and Susan Lamb (Longman) and Rebekha Sharkie (Mayo) formerly from the Nick Xenophon Team and now from the Centre Alliance, all having been found to have rather imperfect understandings of their immediate ancestry.
In Perth and Fremantle, the Liberal Party decided long ago to put up the white flag before a vote was cast. Labor’s return in both WA seats is a no-brainer.
The seats of Longman in Queensland and Braddon in Tasmania are where the serious battles are being fought.
Picking the winners is tricky. Local seat polling is always fraught. Sample sizes are invariably small with gaping margins of error. Polling companies can focus on landline users only and be said to be excluding large demographic chunks from their sample size. Or they can use both landlines and mobile phones and not be quite sure the people they are polling actually live in the electorates up for grabs. Individual seat polling is not a solid basis for predicting winners and losers.
Less scientific but arguably a stronger guide to the results are the betting markets.
In Mayo, Sharkie is short odds-on to defeat the Liberal candidate, Georgina Downer, who is a long way back in the second line of betting at 11/2.
A glance at the betting guide in Braddon today shows Labor has moved in to become the tepid favourite, paying $1.50 with the Coalition at $2.40, with both being a tick under even money a week ago.
In Longman, the market has been all over the shop in the past month but as of today the LNP’s Trevor Ruthenberg leads the Labor’s Lamb $1.65 to $2.20.
The reliability of betting markets is similarly problematic. In what I imagine are fairly small betting pools, odds can be skewed with as little as a couple of hundred down on one candidate or another.
Amid all the unwelcome campaigning and unwanted badgering of people going peacefully about their business, we must bow our heads in silent prayer for the good people of Longman especially. The by-election offers not a Melbourne Cup but more a dismally untalented Cox Plate field of 11 hopefuls, offering little more than a Hobson’s choice for voters.
Susan Lamb’s tale of Section 44 woe came to a head after a tearful speech she made to the parliament, speaking of family dislocation. Her father had passed away many years back and her relationship with her mother was non-existent, she claimed. Then Lamb’s stepmother entered the discussion with her own view of the truth leading to accusations Lamb had misled the parliament.
The LNP candidate, Trevor Ruthenberg, has been forced to apologise after overstating his military honours, not once or twice but thrice on various parliamentary and personal websites. The former fitter and turner also found the term engineer had a more compelling feel to it. We could call it quibbling over not very much, but it would seem Big Trev has done a bit of a Hyacinth Bucket on his resume.
Over in One Nation land, the PHON candidate, Matthew Stephen, has been under fire for what is said to be a somewhat casual attitude to his creditors.
But it gets worse in Longman. Much worse.
Number two on the ballot paper is Jim Saleam from the Australia First Party. Those of a certain vintage with solid long-term memories will recall Saleam getting about in brown shirts and swastika armbands in the 1970s as leader of a neo-Nazi group called National Action.
Back then his sidekick, Ross “The Skull” May was often seen at Saleam’s side looking photogenic in the full Nazi kit with his pointy bald bonce and Coke bottle glasses. Sadly, it would seem the master race is prone to strabismus (crossed eyes) and microcephaly (pinheadism).
The last I heard of The Skull was in 2014 when he was said to be running with a group of ugly misfits called Squadron 88 (the 88 is code for Heil Hitler, the letter ‘h’ being the eighth in the alphabet), who were passing out flyers threatening dark-skinned Sydneysiders with serious assault.
Saleam, who claims to have moved on from those heady days, has served two jail terms, one for property offences and fraud in 1984, the other for being an accessory before the fact in a 1989 shotgun attack on the home of an African National Congress representative who was living in Australia at the time.
Meanwhile down in Braddon, there are reports that the Australia People’s Party candidate, Bruno Strangio, is an undischarged bankrupt. If so, clearly both he and Saleam would be ineligible to sit in the federal Parliament in the unlikely event they would win.
If anything, the so-called Super Saturday reveals our democracy may not yet be cooked but it is roasting slowly over the embers of ineptitude and straight out electoral chicanery. Just to clarify, it is not the Australian Electoral Commission’s role to test the eligibility of candidates. All candidates sign a statutory declaration specifically stating they are eligible under Section 44 of the Constitution.
There may yet be more Section 44 surprises to come. In what is yet untested in the High Court, triumphant candidates may be found to be ineligible for receiving preferences from candidates who are prima facie ineligible. Labor and the LNP have both put Saleam last but PHON has placed Saleam above Labor. In Braddon, the Liberals have preferenced Strangio ahead of Labor.
Will it matter? In a close-run election it might and then the prospect looms of the people of Braddon and Longman having to do it all over again. Again.
I’m exhausted just thinking about it and no doubt like the denizens of Braddon and Longman, I think it’s time I had a long lie down.
This article was first published in The Australian on 25 July 2018.
Remember the days when an appreciative wolf whistle was a compliment? A bit of fun – totally harmless.
Now a girl is supposed to feel outraged, abused mentally and physically.
What a load of crap.
Only for the girls with serious confidence issues and the need to have constant approval and validation some may say those with a Narcissistic personality disorder. You like others here are proving why we need to ban Baby Boomer Whingeing. Puhlease.
Christ, must you always be such a wazzock, Dismayed?
Now run along outside and be a good little boy and see if you can find a sense of humour out there. Try really hard possum
Wazzock? I like it. Is that an Afrikaans thing?
British Triv. A word used quite a lot in those parts. It’s a great word – Google it. Fits our little out of control locus to a tee.
I agree Boa. Also, I’ve never really understood why its called a “wolf” whistle.
That’d be right! Jesus!
Big bad wolf
I still get them, Boa but there will come a time when i will just have to throw out my Delvene Delaney look a like cut off denim shorts. Not only do they show off my cheeks they also bring out the cheek in the boys.
Welll, hello sailor.
Ding dong.
You must have a good memory old girl. Me being a gallant sort of a bloke, here ya go…………….
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MRa4v8R7DD4
Oh thanks , JB! All good, I won’t sue 😊
Keep it handy. Have two in the morning and as you feel gravity taking over throughout the day , take another dose. My clients report a stimulation of youthful memories and the urge to experiment with fashionable clothing.
You should see a doctor before indulging in reckless behaviour, ie, the jitterbug, the hula hoop, roller skates etc.
Cheers.
Loved dis “Dutton never became head of the state police; his actions now suggest he would like to be head of a police state”.
Your affection appears to be poorly misplaced Bassy.
Nice one
Zimbabwe – here we go again.
And in South Africa acquisition of land owned by Whites without compensation is to commence. If the farmers walk away the country is finished.
This has been building up in SA since apartheid collapsed. SA has never undertaken land reform and the overwhelming majority of the population want it. While it shouldn’t matter, these farms were often worked by squatters. Generations later the land became theirs under the apartheid regime. this is an historical problem that has never been resolved. What we have now is an issue ready to explode because it had been the subject of administrative failure for almost a century and then when the ANC took charge, was put in the too hard basket. One would think fair compensation is a no brainer along with promoting co-operative land sharing agreements, training exercises etc but it seems there will be no sensible approach.
The current President cut from that same ANC cloth says food security must be guaranteed, what bank in their right mind would lend a farmer any money?
England out for 287
If they want food supply they had better leave the white farmers right where they are rather than murder them or take their farm.
One thing they are not good at is farming. The traditional lifestyle is nomadic. Once their livestock has grazed the surrounds bare they move on. That’s why so much of Africa is barren land.
Yep absolutely, Jack. Mandela was an amazing person but unfortunately he could not deliver an overnight solution for the promises he made to his people. To make matters worse he opened up the borders to the rest of Africa – which resulted in an influx of people from the north.
They then had, and still do have,
rampant unemployment – 27% of black people are unemployed and there is open hostility towards foreign black tribes who are competing for scarce opportunities.
Add the corrupt Zuma government to the mix and they have an economic mess.
Yes, they are entitled to land – but if the farmers that haven’t been murdered walk away, like they did in Zimbabwe , it’s the potential for another Zimbabwe.
What a mess and so disappointing for those who have held such hope.
Boa, Jack,
I have lived in southern Africa, and now visit South Africa quite regularly looking at mining projects – it is a country I love. I keep a close eye on politics, and could write a book on my thoughts! One point regarding the land appropriation issue is, with elections coming up, is Ramaphos and the ANC pandering to Malemi (who is dangerous with his party), who supported the opposition DA in the last municipal elections, and could have a deciding vote?
On usage of land, Boa, you are correct. There is a totally different attitude towards land usage between the different ethnic groups. I have seen this first hand in an area I have been to a number of times.
Driving through outback NSW and reading the history of every town, it seems the massacres of local indigenous people was prolific. No wonder we can’t sort out the real issues as our past has affected and will continue to affect the present. No better in South Australia or the Northern Territory. Our forefathers (and if you want do some research) particularly Alexander Downer’s nation building forefathers have a lot to answer for.
Thoughtful and very relevant Penny. Onya.
Penny
By today’s standards it was terrible.
The early settlers applied the morals of the 18th century.
The aboriginals fought an asymmetrical ( Guerrilla) war in the defense of their land and the killing was not all one way.
They lost, and, as in Canada, US and a number of other countries, a new nation appeared.
What was done and cannot be undone – hand wringing will achieve nothing .
Recognize what was done, and move on.
But never, never impose on the children the sins of their fathers.
There is not a country on the planet that can stand up to historical scrutiny using current day morals and that includes the black African states.
Spotted this news recently. The voertrekkers are on the trek again. Who’d a thunk!
https://citizen.co.za/news/south-africa/1974673/russia-is-considering-taking-in-15-000-white-farmers/
Mr. Insider, is a new Blog coming up we appear to be 2 behind now, your latest Horse one just gone up in the Oz and apt too on August 1st, Horses Birthday. Cheers
And aren’t some of commentators over the wall complete tossers and grumble bums, Henry? Our hosts generosity or tolerance is a rare exception in this line of communication.
Some shockers Milton goodness me, not for me I am afraid I think many ex now defunct “The Punch”. Cheers
You chafing at the bit HB?
This is worrying Boa…….
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/south-africa-to-allow-land-seizure/news-story/f82fedc1928297e8df0fd88144d7cd7b
Very much so Razor
More evidence the Governments hand picked energy board is running the coalitions scam. The latest info on the NEG is that NO solar or wind will be built after 2022. Effectively killing the industry again. The NEG , as has been stated numerous times locks in the status quo ensuring Power prices will be higher than they should be. The cost savings expected in the next couple of years are because of the Renewables coming online into the NEM. This coalition is a disgrace. The cons cannot do anything that is not ideologically driven. It is as if they are deliberately working against the National interest. No Surprises. FN disgrace.
Nice work Dismayed
“No solar or wind will be built after 2022”.
Says it all about where the Fibnats are taking this country.
Is Elvis really dead Jack? Some say not.
Are you saying Elvis died. Where? When? How? Name your source you fake newser.
He sure is alive Priscilla he’s my daddy.
He lives down the street from me with his partner, Lord Lucan. I only know this because their pet thylacine often jumps the fence and I catch it and take it back home.
He’s gawn, Priscilla. Apparently he was cremated whilst ‘ A hunk, a hunk of burning love’ played in the background. Though he still lives on in my heart.
This blokes has got some guts too. Alex Johnson good luck.
https://wwos.nine.com.au/2018/08/01/13/24/swan-johnson-back-in-afl-after-12-knee-ops
David Love Champion bloke. More Aussies should look at his example.
https://pickle.nine.com.au/2018/08/01/14/46/random-act-kindness-old-man-coffee
Lovely guy & it happens all the time mate.
My tradie son believes in this thing called ‘paying it forward’ & his bride-to-be tells me sometimes he pays for an elderly person’s few groceries, ahead of him in the queue, if he sees their purse or wallet looks old & almost empty of cash.
From what I hear from clients at work, he’s not alone. 💙
A little error in the headline of the Emma Husar article. It was meant to be “I take taxpayers money, seriously”.
She’s certainly attracting some headlines Milton. They couldn’t all be possibly true. Could they?
We will never know, CotC.