The overwhelming view is the Andrews government will win the Victorian election comfortably, possibly extending its margin in the lower house, but an analysis based on betting markets in individual seats reveals a strong possibility that Labor will find itself in minority government come Saturday night.
A ReachTel/Fairfax poll published on Friday morning has the Andrews government ahead 54-46 two party preferred. If accurate, this would mean Labor could pick up as many as five Coalition held seats (Ripon, Morwell, South Barwon and Burwood). Herald Sun Galaxy has it at 53-47.
The betting markets, however, do not see it that way.
At present, Labor nominally holds 46 seats in the 88 seat Legislative Assembly.
If we look at the betting markets alone, Labor is tipped to lose the inner-city seats of Richmond and Brunswick to the Greens, forcing it into minority government.
There remains the prospect that Labor may grab a seat or two from the Coalition but on the betting markets, the Coalition is favoured to hold all its marginal seats with the possible exception of South Barwon where the betting has Labor and the Coalition neck-and-neck at $1.80.
I’ve been doing an analysis on state and federal elections for some time now based on average polling figures which I cast across the electoral pendulum to identify seats in play and then examine the betting on those seats in an attempt to predict the overall outcome.
I usually get to within three or four seats of the actual margin even when the results have been something of a surprise. I predicted Labor would win minority government in Queensland in 2015 (Palaszczuk/Labor ended up winning with a majority of two with 35 seats changing hands) and tipped the Coalition to have a majority of two in the 2016 federal election. Close enough.
The problem in the Victorian election is the polling has been threadbare and I am not entirely certain about the accuracy of some of it. This morning’s ReachTel/Fairfax poll has the Coalition’s primary vote at 36 per cent. That’s a decline of five per cent on the 2014 election result. The poll has Labor’s primary vote increasing by one per cent on the 2014 actual. How that translates into 54-46 Labor’s way (up from 52-48 in 2014) is difficult to understand. I presume the polling company has applied preference flows from the 2014 result, but this is vexed.
My view, based on the entirely unscientific basis of speculation, is that the primary vote of both the majors will decline with the minors and independents getting around 25 per cent of the primary vote. That would be a new record in the state. Polling companies face difficulties in establishing a two-party preferred figure based on historical preference flows when the ‘other’ vote is on the rise.
With increasing numbers of voters pre-polling these days, betting markets are likely to be more accurate and offer fewer surprises.
There are caveats of course. The individual seat markets in state elections are based on relatively small betting pools. The bookies won’t let on how much dough they are carrying. It may be just a few hundred dollars or in some seats nothing at all.
No good analysis should be devoid of a little guesswork. I would say overall that Greens voters, damn their oily hides, tend not to punt on elections, this being contrary to their desolate, fun-free view of the world. So, where markets reflect the Greens are going OK, they are probably doing better than that.
The good news for Labor from this analysis is that it is short odds-on to retain a brace of marginals in Melbourne’s southeast, the so-called law and order seats of Frankston, Carrum, Bentleigh and Mordialloc. It holds the first three of these by margins of less than one per cent. In Frankston and Carrum, the bookies have Labor at $1.33 to hold and in Bentleigh $1.20 to retain the seat it won from the Coalition in the 2014 election.
The Coalition may pinch the seat of Prahran back from the Greens but the betting in the inner-city seat south of the Yarra is as murky as the river itself with the bookies offering little better that even money the field.
The three-cornered contest has the Coalition at $2.30, Labor at $2.40 and the Greens at $2.75.
The market shows the Coalition’s attempt to win back Morwell from former National turned independent, Russell Northe is possible although Northe remains outright favourite ($2.25, Coalition $2.75, Labor $3.00).
Labor is learning the hard way the seats it coughed up to the Greens are not likely to come back anytime soon. It lost the seat of Melbourne to the Greens in the 2014 election. The Greens are at $1.36 to retain, Labor at $2.40. In Northcote, which Labor lost in a by-election to the Greens after the death of the sitting member, Fiona Richardson, the Greens are at $1.30 to retain with Labor $3.50.
No joy there for Premier Dan.
My best guess is the two major parties will lose in all seats where Greens or independents are sitting members. Interestingly, the Ipsos/Fairfax poll has the Greens vote coming down, so Labor may yet hold Richmond and Brunswick.
Labor has dragged out the ultimate heavy hitter, former Prime Minister Paul Keating to give its flagging campaign in Richmond some momentum. Planning Minister, Richard Wynne is in the gun. In a letter released to the media, Keating criticised Opposition leader, Matthew Guy, for failing to run a candidate in Richmond.
“Matthew Guy is attempting to defeat Planning Minister Richard Wynne by leaving the field wide open to the Greens. And what motivation would Mr Guy have for such a strategy; obviously to do the bidding of the property development industry, with whom he is so close,” Mr Keating wrote.
I love it when you talk dirty, Paul.
This is the first occasion in almost ten years where the betting markets have been at odds with the polling. It will be interesting to see what stands up on Saturday night.
Be it on polling or the hard earned of the punters, the prospect of a Coalition victory in Victoria is so minute it may only be visible through an electron microscope. But if the betting is the stronger guide, Dan Andrews’ celebrations might be tempered by the knowledge he will be governing only with a nod from the Greens.
This column as first published in The Australian 23 November 2018.
dogs are barking
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/liberals-urge-dave-sharma-to-run-against-tony-abbott-in-warringah-20181128-p50iwa.html
macron is a tool.
https://moneymaven.io/mishtalk/economics/european-gas-stations-out-of-diesel-french-refinery-strike-deepens-crisis-QKfaVhJc0EuFHGx6OOf5ZA/
Bella, re your 9.11PM 27 Nov post, I’m sorry and saddened that you appear to have taken my earlier comment so much to heart. It was not my intention to hurt you personally. Perhaps I went a little overboard in my attempt to advocate for the animal and wildlife constituency generally. As you of all people know, they need all the help they can get.
Others on here may choose tedious caustic homilies deliberately delivered from the gutter and repetitively peppered with personal abuse; but its definitely not my go.
On the matter of the world attempting to transition from the use of fossil fuels to alternative methods of energy delivery, it appears a process that was once a laudable ambition has for some time now been infiltrated and exploited by carpetbaggers, as well as intergovernmental bodies seemingly engaged in continental wealth transfer exercises. The so called international renewable energy campaign is beginning to exhibit all the hallmarks of simply a global economic exercise rather than an environmental one.
But back to the beginning, I do hope and trust that you may forgive my earlier out of character, intemperate post.
Yours in tolerance, understanding and mercy.
Carl
cotc=hypocrite. Even in your sniveling retraction you try to blame other people. No surprises.
I say Dismayed, whilst you have amply demonstrated on here on many occasions that any admission of error on your part is obviously a threat to your fragile sense of identity and self-esteem, but what on earth caused you to so suddenly believe that my para 2 @ 5.07pm above was a suggestion that you had fallen off the footpath?
Thanks for your comments but don’t stress, it just caught me at a weak moment & it wasn’t like you.
As a proud greenie & I’ve copped my share of nastiness but I’m past worrying about who likes me or dislikes me here Carl and as heated as it gets, I’m still happy to converse with my unknown mates after all this time.
Globally we have to phase-out coal & shift to alternate energy sources to deal with the increasing crisis of global warming & that by itself must outweigh the continued use of fossil-fuels. It’s insane to back new coal mines when Australia offers a plethora of excellent locations for clean solar, wind & wave technology. Goodness knows if the Snowy Hydro 2 announcement was ever real but these projects should take priority.
As for “wealth transfer exercises” Carl, I really don’t care. I mean, that kind of “transfer” has been happening for eons, currently streaming into the LibNats pockets from the resources industry, hungry as always to lock out renewables in favour of more dangerous emissions, no matter what Australians are begging them to do.
Humanity is so focused on itself that political parties determine policy according to short-term human interests. Natural habitats & environmental issues NEVER come into account because people who worship money are just never satisfied.
Regards, Bella
Your latest article on Andrews is a goodun, Jack. And the timing even better, but not so much for Andrews as Denis Ryan, whose admirable character was above petty politics. And whilst modestly compensated I hope Ryan i s amply rewarded with a healthy longevity. And good work and well handled to Andrews.
Thousands of homes blacked out in NSW. That is the THIRD blackout over the same period when SA has not had even ONE! Now if that had happened in SA the Liberals would be screaming, Sky After Dark would explode and it would be front page news in The Terror. Craig Kelly…a dummy spit as big as War-Mongering Jim who said he would blow up any Chinese ship that tries to dock in the Gulf of C. Thank Christ he is gone forever.
Multiple failures of coal fired generation continues daily across the nation and have done all year. A guy died in an explosion at an old unreliable coal fired generation plant recently. No talk of it, certainly No talk of a Royal Commission, No talk of a Royal Commission into the hundreds of Transport worker deaths since the coalition stopped Safe Rates either? no talk discussion of the workplace deaths in the building industry sine the ABCC was reinstated. No charges against Cash or anyone since the special prosecutor selected by the government started looking at it? Hypocrisy lies and misinformation is the cons have. This next election will see fear mongering, dishonesty and division taken to new heights by the coalition. No surprises
Sky after Dark after a Blackout – eeks, sounds creepy.
My concern is you just may be veering a little too Left dear BASSMAN. Suggest tuning in to Andrew Bolt on Sky to get a clearer perspective of the full picture. Cheers P.S. please don’t join the Greens!
POTUS Trump will not meet with our PM Morrison face to face at the upcoming G20 in Buenos Aires Argentina November 30 and December 1st, Mr. Insider.
Short the time is but Trump may not wish to waste time meeting a lame duck PM.
https://www.g20.org/en
Henry, a mate of mine caught you giving an after dinner talk in Norwich last Saturday. 78 and going very well, he mentioned. Said talk was very informative and hilarious. You do get around mate. 🙂
Has Josh finally done something smart? Half the press gallery boards a flight to BA and the G20 and Josh pulls out! That’ll keep them quiet for four or five days. Ole!
Oh, I see, the nightwatchman is going. Yawn.
Ole indeed. I wish I was on that trip. If only to check out the city that spawned the genius of Borges. Only joking. I’m up for the grog, the food, the girls and the um er , shame and disgrace that an organised minority (from both teams, and the football culture, in general) cruelled on a world wide collective of football lovers. Still there is the hockey.
Don’t cry for me Argentina? Well I’m not. I’m crying for you. Sort yourself out guys because I’m going to retire in either Buenos Aires or Forestville!
I spent a couple of days in BA in the nineties. It was great, although there some dire slums I missed out on seeing. Highlights were the main drag (Ave 7 de Julio I think) which is wider even than the main street of Trundle; the Tigre district and an enticing young tango busker I saw at the markets. At the same market I found a churango made from an armidillo – in those pre-Border Security days I still thought better of getting it through quarantine back here but I was sorely tempted. Also got to drive around one of the big football stadiums, River or Boca, forget which. It was enormous but bloody awful. Gladys would have it demolished without a second thought.
I read the somewhere the Atlantic Council was coaching the Saudis on post Khashoggi public relations damage control. Here I’m not sure whether they are recoiling from the possibility or obliquely suggesting.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/23/saudi-war-game-scenario-shows-peril-of-post-khashoggi-peril-for-the-us.html
It’s all over Mr. Baptiste nothing more to see here move along fellow. Saudi kills Saudi sad but not uncommon. Cheers
With emissions from electricity accounting for only 1/3 of our current output and decreasing as more renewables come online could someone tell me how we meet Labors target by 2030? The other 2/3rds are Agriculture and Transport. There will have to be significant job loses in these areas. A fully electrified transport network will not be here within a decade. The major car manufacturers agree, as battery storage is nowhere near there yet. Australia has significantly larger distances to travel than Europe and will require massive infrastructure. The vehicles will be too expensive for the ordinary person to buy anyway.
This is virtue signalling wrapped in half truths and lies being sold to the Australian people who are they ones who are going to pay and pay with their livelihoods and way of life. As with the solar feed in tariffs; the bloke who cant afford to install get’s the shaft and pays for the rest!
ahhhhh ahhhhh ahhhhh the sky is falling, the sky is falling. Only in your your mind is it rational to state that Emission reductions equals job losses. FFS get a grip.
Can you please reply with facts ratherthan emotion?
Prove what I have said is wrong. A simple request.
The Angry Inch – has Boof rang or texted you back thanking you for the advice? I certainly hope so! The number of celebs i’ ve met in the WC’s mit beer and snort and me giving free advice, and what do I get? Not a hello or a thank-you.
Is there a more sniveling specimen in parliament than Craig Kelly?
The anti-Abbott posters are spreading in this neck of the woods and Dick Smith comes out if the woodwork to say he might have a run In Mackellar, Falinski is a moderate and can’t see him being turfed by
Shark Week starts on Discovery tomorrow, so much blood in the water🦈
I pointed Craig Kelly out on this blog a few days ago Tracy, he is hard to like indeed. Cheers
who’s trying??
Please remove those posters, or train your ferret(s) to defecate liberally on them, Tracy. It sounds like vigilant vandalism and needs to be nipped in the bud. If this keeps up I may be forced to purchase a house near yours so as I can cast a vote for the good Abbott!!
My little fur balls are trained I’ll have you know, they only use litter trays.
Abbott will win and he will win well and you know it Tracy. I’m willing to have a bottle of something up to $100.00 on it.
Is there a schism brewing or is this something more like Hawking radiation?
Considering it’s estimated 270 million sharks are killed every year around the world by culls, bycatch, drumlines, trophy fishing & shark-fin operators, compared to the handful of humans they kill, studies show the species is heading south with 90% already gone Tracy.
Sharks play an essential role in protecting our ecosystems as well.
Bella, that is a lot of sharks, about 740,000 per day. Just doesn’t sound right. You know what they say about statistics. Maybe they were including unborn babies? 😏 🦈