You have to wonder if government is capable of learning from the mistakes of the past. If it was a school student, it’d be in the special class, sitting opposite the kid with his lunch order pinned to his jumper and next to the other boy who started all those fires.
Take the example of the tobacco excise hike introduced by then Treasurer, Wayne Swan, that pushed up the cost of a packet of smokes by 25% in 2010 and 12.5% each year since and every year to at least 2020.
A pack of lung busters was $12 in 2009. That same pack will set you back $34 now.
The policy had bipartisan support and along with plain packaging was hailed as a masterstroke in prevention by the public health industry.
But there’s a problem and it’s a big one.
There have been shortfalls in budget revenue as revealed in the 2017/18 Budget and MYEFO of $250 million and the 18/19 Budget to MYEFO of $340 million. This must mean smokers are becoming ex-smokers either by the grim business of smoking related death and disease or by hordes of smokers giving the durries away due to their sheer cost, right?
Well, not really. There is option c, a rather obvious flaw in the policy that one presumes policy makers considered at the time but their brows furrowed only briefly before moving on to the ugly grab for the punters’ hard earned. Option c involves the rise of a dedicated, lucrative black market that anecdotally at least has dragged transnational crime syndicates into the fray.
The Australian Criminal Intelligence Commission (ACIC) tests levels of compounds in wastewater for population-wide levels of drug use as well as alcohol and tobacco. Testing in 2016 and 2017 revealed nicotine consumption had increased in all capital cities and regions tested. Nicotine can come from vaping and the use of patches, gum and the plethora of product designed to ease a smoker off the dreaded coffin nails but still, this data flies in the face of the accepted wisdom that high rates of taxation, not to mention plain packaging of cigarettes, have reduced nicotine consumption.
There is a deep, dark black hole in the data and that is the consumption of illicit tobacco, almost all of it imported into the country illegally and more and more by organised crime groups.
Consumption of illicit tobacco has risen four per cent since the introduction of the scheduled excise increases in 2009, according to a report by KPMG commissioned by British American Tobacco and Philip Morris. Illicit tobacco now accounts for 14 per cent of total consumption according to the report or 2300 tonnes per annum. Ok, big tobacco might have a significant interest in this topic but no one in government or the public health lobby has produced any data that might bring the report into question.
It’s not just that projected revenue from tobacco excise hikes is looking at sharper shortfalls going forward. More and more taxpayer money will need to be invested in law enforcement.
Similarly, having supported the excise hikes and plain packaging, the Turnbull government feels obliged to create new laws and penalties, having realised too late what the so called unintended consequences of these policies were — relatively low-risk smuggling operations of illicit tobacco by organised crime groups.
I say so called because anyone with a functioning brain beyond the simian could have seen these problems arising from the outset.
Last month, the Minister for Revenue and Financial Services, Kelly O’Dwyer announced the law as it stood was inadequate and that new laws with harsher penalties were required.
Obviously, tobacco theft and smuggling has always been a problem but as the excise hikes have kicked in, in what might be called prohibition by stealth, a relatively small law enforcement problem has become a lot bigger and uglier in Australia.
Anyone who has even a passing interest in 20th century history understands the folly of the Volstead Act in the US which prohibited the consumption of alcohol in the US for 14 years. We know that the worst of the consequences came in establishing a rock solid foundation for organised crime. Al Capone, Charles ‘Lucky’ Luciano, Meyer Lansky, the creation of New York’s five families and the infestation of a powerful group, the Sicilian Mafia otherwise known as La Cosa Nostra, in the US can be traced back to prohibition.
Globally, we are dealing with something a whole lot bigger and nastier. The global prohibition of narcotics for the last sixty years or more has installed organised crime syndicates to a level of power and influence that is simply unstoppable now.
The most active organised crime group in Australia, the Calabrian mafia, ‘Ndrangheta, supplies 80 percent of Europe’s cocaine. It has an estimated annual turnover of $70 billion. That makes it bigger than BHP-Billiton. It’s bigger than the GDP of Slovenia or Croatia by way of example.
So we can see the difficulties for law enforcement and the problems that arise in relation to the potential for corruption of public officials. Virtually everyone has their price and those that don’t are swept aside or murdered.
The biggest problem organised crime has today is what to do with all its loot. But that problem is overcome easily enough.
In 2016, the Hong Kong Shanghai Bank (HSBC) was found to have laundered at least $1 billion in cash deposits from the Mexican drug cartels, most of it from the Sinaloa cartel. Some of the bank’s executives were sent off to pasture and the bank agreed to pay a US $1.9 billion fine in a civil settlement with the US Government but importantly, the US Government decided not to launch a criminal prosecution.
HSBC was too big to prosecute because it was too big to fail. A prosecution may have led the bank to be excluded from the US, and there were serious concerns on the impact of a criminal prosecution on the global economy. Thus the world’s sixth largest public company, having confessed to laundering funds from the Mexican cartels, including Sinaloa who played a significant role in the violent deaths of 100,000 Mexicans in the narco wars of the last 15 years, walked away with little more than a parking ticket.
Australian governments, past and present have learned nothing and remain obsessed with prohibitions either by statute or by stealth. In the case of the rampant hikes in excise on tobacco, the policy of Wayne Swan, wholly endorsed by three federal governments since, has provided yet another funding source for syndicated organised crime.
libor up…tic toc for straya
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/03/26/hong-kong-first-global-firing-line-libor-shock-hits-currency/
Geez – this cricket episode is staring to look like trial by media.
Don’t some journos really love it when they can sink the boot into a high flyer and then the pack mentality sets in.
The reputations of Smith and Warner have been tarnished forever ( or until they score a double hundred and save a test match) and the will lose millions in sponsorship etc.
Talk of a 2 year ban is ridiculous.
Agree JS two years is over egging the pudding. Lehman has to go though. Langer will come with the strength and character to set a new standard.
They really have gone overboard.
Did it to themselves. Bunch of arrogant idiots. Dont deserve any support. Cant win without cheating. F***k them.
I agree JS.
From ‘creme de la creme’ to ‘creme de la crim’ is way over the top of off-stump.
Trial by media – he should have blamed the dingo.
I know that cricketers tampering with their balls (or other people’s balls – I haven’t cared enough to pay attention) is the most important thing in the world right now, but there is one other issue we probably should be aware of, which is the guilty finding in the Nazi Pug / Count Dankula case in Scotland.
In short, Scottish online comedian, Count Dankula (aka Mark Meechan) put up a Youtube video showing how he’d trained his girlfriend’s pug to respond to Nazi cues, including the phrase, “gas the Jews”. He didn’t do this because he’s a Nazi but because he was sick of his girlfriend always going on about how cute the dog was, so he decided to make the dog into the least cute thing in the world that he could think of: a Nazi. You know, for a joke.
Count Dankula was found guilty by a judge in Airdrie Sheriff’s Court who accepted the prosecution argument that Count Dankula’s intent in making the video and the context in which it was shown were irrelevant to the case and that he should be convicted of a hate crime. He now awaits sentencing, including the prospect of a custodial sentence.
I mention it because if this can happen in Britain, and more particularly in Scotland – where offence-giving is basically the national sport – you can bet your bottom dollar that this is coming to an Australian jurisdiction near you. S18C of the RDA and the new blasphemy laws that now exist in Victoria and the ACT are just the beginning. Sieg Heil, indeed!
Who could put it better than Jonathan Pie (caution – extreme language): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aj4z7rieRL8
Not only that TBLS, it was the police who instigated the prosecution.
It was in bad taste and if that becomes a crime, the only people who will be safe are those in monasteries with no contact with the outside world.
If she had a parrot he would be facing the death penalty.
I’m no Einstein but I may just have beaten the headline or sponsors, or not.
“Mad” Mike Hughes you magnificent bastard! He did it Mr Insider, just like the self-taught Rocket Scientist always pledged he would, even though he quickly came back down, it was mission accomplished for a man more daredevil than engineer. 600metres up in his own home made Rocket in the Mojave Desert and he plans to make a “Rockoon” now to go 110klms up! He does have one “quirk” in that he is an avid “Flat Earther”, but hey we can overlook that for sure as “some” believe in Climate Change, “others” say we never went to the Moon.
https://tinyurl.com/ybm7aavs
Lothar Seiber you magnificent bastard! He followed orders to the very end. It’s an old hobby Henry – https://www.quora.com/Who-was-the-first-man-to-fly-in-a-rocket
Lots of chatter about cheating in the last Ashes series, and I guess that there might have been a bit of that happening, but then i always expect that there is a bit of it going on.
as to the result, my recollection is that it was the pace and aggression that was the difference not reverse swing.
the aussies were certain that it was happening in the 2005 Ashes, and Jones and Flintoff reversing at 150 certainly gave say Gilchrist a tough series. In Derek Pringle’s excellent piece on ball tampering he says Trescothick admitted using Murray’s Mints in 2005 to shine one side, which is what Du Plessis got done for in Aus.
the odd aspect to this, Faf gets pinged twice for ball tampering and is made captain of South Africa, Athers is found guilty and gets fined a couple of thousand quid, keeps his job as captain and goes on to a distinguished career as a writer and commentator, the Aussie captain will lose his job, probably get a year on the sidelines and face ignominy forever.
in the Athers and Haigh pieces today, just a suggestion that the Aussies are being punished not so much for cheating as for past arrogance and insensitivity and present hypocrisy, and that is probably a fair call, e.g. i certainly agree that they have been getting the whole sledging thing arse about.
anyway, the mob will demand a few bones be thrown their way, and won’t settle for anything less than at least a year and maybe two.
I suppose Cricket Australia will sit down with their High Performance Priest and the Integrity Judge and whatever shiny bums and time servers they pay for and come up with something that will look faintly foolish in a years time.
Good Friday is still 3 days away, so there’s time to organise a crucifixion. If that doesn’t work they could impose the 5 run penalty that the umpires didn’t think was warranted.
Crucifixion?
Yes.
One cross each, line on the left!
The Greens have got the wood locked up, so you’d need a steel cross, and you’ll have to pop rivet your victim into place. Welding them up won’t work as the burnt bits keep letting go.
“Lots of chatter about cheating in the last Ashes series,”
Where there’s smoke there’s ashes, Jack.
It seems to me Jack that Australia can’t win either way, “fess up and you’re crucified, pretend it didn’t happen you’re crucified…
An English friend said to us today, that he didn’t know what all the fuss was about and he cited all the examples you have…..he did say though that he didn’t know why Australia needed to do it as we are the best cricket side in the world…..not sure a lot of his countrymen would agree at the moment though, as they seem to be revelling in it.
OT. I’ve been reading all the hype about the new Qantas 17hr nonstop Perth-London that gets one there just one hour faster than the usual Singspore or Dubai stopover routes
First or business class might be bearable, but i couldn’t imagine 17hrs cattle class. Purgatory.
However what the blurb never takes into account is that one has to fly to Perth to get on it. That’s another 4-5hr flight!!
Read a review of the flight Boa, with the headline “I survived the 17 hour Flight”……..I got as far as the second paragraph to find out she travelled on business class courtesy of QF……read no further
Yeah exactly Penny.!
Cattle class would be horrendous for 17 hrs – forget about the dimming lights, extra moisture, anti jetlag measures blah, blah blah.
Shocker Boadicea, I thought 13 hours to LA was bad enough we need some stopovers. Cheers
Qantas is about to cut out all ME stop overs.
From next year, I think, they will fly via Singapore instead of Dubai – omitting all ME stopovers.
Might be more to it than meets the eye.
Fifteen hours non-stop to Vancouver….easy peasy Boadicea AND (shock horror) in economy. How many leisure travellers actually have the extra thousands to stump-up for F or B class mate long-haul?
On the two occasions I’ve been given an upgrade (what a word) it is ‘enlightening’ to me to witness how degrading it is for the stewards to have to bow & scrape for hours & hours to a handful of other human beings who think they’re better human beings because they’re rich.
My late Dad was rolling in it & first class until he retired, then he made a pact to fly “cattle class” because he simply detested being waited-on.
As is often the case with these types of brouhaha’s sponsor’s get a bit skittish, so we’ll see how kfc go.
Oh pleeeeez, let them bail. I’ll pay Smith and Bancroft’s salaries for a year if we can get shot of them. Chicken tamperers that they are.
Well I hope we learn the major lesson from all this and that is don’t get caught!
What is interesting is what I believe an underhanded attempt by the poms to have us hand back the ashes. Stuart Broad, that saucy minx, observes that we were getting reverse swing in unhelpful conditions during the ashes, and furthermore why would we aussies choose just this one test match for a little skulduggery. Watch those poms!
Yep, nice one Stu. I’m surprised he didn’ t mention that the NZ bowlers didn’t get any reverse swing against them in their first innings of their most recent Test.
Might have had something to do with the ball still being new when they were all back in the shed.
Like you’d trust Stuart Broad…
I think there’s some mighty exaggeration over just what ball tampering can do to it too, in terms of improving the bowler’s chances.
The Press sticking it up Turnbull re his 29 “Barry Crocker” Newspolls, Mr Insider, and like the raving hypocrite he is he doesn’t like it. Was different when he gave it to Abbott, who must now be choking with mirth as No30 soon to arrive. Don’t expect a change in PMship this time as when you look at the dills on the government benches you would be hard pressed to find anyone capable of washing your car!
https://tinyurl.com/y7k2emz4
I’m confident he will do the honourable thing and abdicate, Henry. Any idea what day the lucky number comes around? I can think of 2 chaps [from different parties] who have a red circle around it in their daily planner.
Just after Easter Milton a late Easter Bunny gift for the hapless and hopeless Malcolm. We are planning a “No 30” party with eats and drinks whoo hooooooo Cheers
And Abbott is bitching and griping away on Twitter………still doesn’t get it.
I did notice that Tracy.
I wonder who lives in his head because the guy is so bent on revenge he can’t see straight. 😲
get what, Tracy? [and what follows is all moi, T] . Abbott got rid of the Rudd and Gillard and Rudd disaster. That shameful part of our history saw our finances go pear shaped, our detention centres get full, and then beyond capacity, and encouraged the unidentifiable deaths, at sea, in the hundreds; more than the number of aussies who died in the Vietnam war. Abbott said he would turn back the boats. Jack, along with a good deal of naysayers, said he couldn’t, he did. It is impossible to number the lives that Abbott’s , non pc, pragmatism saved. No leader, from either side, would have done that. That’s because there is no other leader.