The overwhelming view is the Andrews government will win the Victorian election comfortably, possibly extending its margin in the lower house, but an analysis based on betting markets in individual seats reveals a strong possibility that Labor will find itself in minority government come Saturday night.
A ReachTel/Fairfax poll published on Friday morning has the Andrews government ahead 54-46 two party preferred. If accurate, this would mean Labor could pick up as many as five Coalition held seats (Ripon, Morwell, South Barwon and Burwood). Herald Sun Galaxy has it at 53-47.
The betting markets, however, do not see it that way.
At present, Labor nominally holds 46 seats in the 88 seat Legislative Assembly.
If we look at the betting markets alone, Labor is tipped to lose the inner-city seats of Richmond and Brunswick to the Greens, forcing it into minority government.
There remains the prospect that Labor may grab a seat or two from the Coalition but on the betting markets, the Coalition is favoured to hold all its marginal seats with the possible exception of South Barwon where the betting has Labor and the Coalition neck-and-neck at $1.80.
I’ve been doing an analysis on state and federal elections for some time now based on average polling figures which I cast across the electoral pendulum to identify seats in play and then examine the betting on those seats in an attempt to predict the overall outcome.
I usually get to within three or four seats of the actual margin even when the results have been something of a surprise. I predicted Labor would win minority government in Queensland in 2015 (Palaszczuk/Labor ended up winning with a majority of two with 35 seats changing hands) and tipped the Coalition to have a majority of two in the 2016 federal election. Close enough.
The problem in the Victorian election is the polling has been threadbare and I am not entirely certain about the accuracy of some of it. This morning’s ReachTel/Fairfax poll has the Coalition’s primary vote at 36 per cent. That’s a decline of five per cent on the 2014 election result. The poll has Labor’s primary vote increasing by one per cent on the 2014 actual. How that translates into 54-46 Labor’s way (up from 52-48 in 2014) is difficult to understand. I presume the polling company has applied preference flows from the 2014 result, but this is vexed.
My view, based on the entirely unscientific basis of speculation, is that the primary vote of both the majors will decline with the minors and independents getting around 25 per cent of the primary vote. That would be a new record in the state. Polling companies face difficulties in establishing a two-party preferred figure based on historical preference flows when the ‘other’ vote is on the rise.
With increasing numbers of voters pre-polling these days, betting markets are likely to be more accurate and offer fewer surprises.
There are caveats of course. The individual seat markets in state elections are based on relatively small betting pools. The bookies won’t let on how much dough they are carrying. It may be just a few hundred dollars or in some seats nothing at all.
No good analysis should be devoid of a little guesswork. I would say overall that Greens voters, damn their oily hides, tend not to punt on elections, this being contrary to their desolate, fun-free view of the world. So, where markets reflect the Greens are going OK, they are probably doing better than that.
The good news for Labor from this analysis is that it is short odds-on to retain a brace of marginals in Melbourne’s southeast, the so-called law and order seats of Frankston, Carrum, Bentleigh and Mordialloc. It holds the first three of these by margins of less than one per cent. In Frankston and Carrum, the bookies have Labor at $1.33 to hold and in Bentleigh $1.20 to retain the seat it won from the Coalition in the 2014 election.
The Coalition may pinch the seat of Prahran back from the Greens but the betting in the inner-city seat south of the Yarra is as murky as the river itself with the bookies offering little better that even money the field.
The three-cornered contest has the Coalition at $2.30, Labor at $2.40 and the Greens at $2.75.
The market shows the Coalition’s attempt to win back Morwell from former National turned independent, Russell Northe is possible although Northe remains outright favourite ($2.25, Coalition $2.75, Labor $3.00).
Labor is learning the hard way the seats it coughed up to the Greens are not likely to come back anytime soon. It lost the seat of Melbourne to the Greens in the 2014 election. The Greens are at $1.36 to retain, Labor at $2.40. In Northcote, which Labor lost in a by-election to the Greens after the death of the sitting member, Fiona Richardson, the Greens are at $1.30 to retain with Labor $3.50.
No joy there for Premier Dan.
My best guess is the two major parties will lose in all seats where Greens or independents are sitting members. Interestingly, the Ipsos/Fairfax poll has the Greens vote coming down, so Labor may yet hold Richmond and Brunswick.
Labor has dragged out the ultimate heavy hitter, former Prime Minister Paul Keating to give its flagging campaign in Richmond some momentum. Planning Minister, Richard Wynne is in the gun. In a letter released to the media, Keating criticised Opposition leader, Matthew Guy, for failing to run a candidate in Richmond.
“Matthew Guy is attempting to defeat Planning Minister Richard Wynne by leaving the field wide open to the Greens. And what motivation would Mr Guy have for such a strategy; obviously to do the bidding of the property development industry, with whom he is so close,” Mr Keating wrote.
I love it when you talk dirty, Paul.
This is the first occasion in almost ten years where the betting markets have been at odds with the polling. It will be interesting to see what stands up on Saturday night.
Be it on polling or the hard earned of the punters, the prospect of a Coalition victory in Victoria is so minute it may only be visible through an electron microscope. But if the betting is the stronger guide, Dan Andrews’ celebrations might be tempered by the knowledge he will be governing only with a nod from the Greens.
This column as first published in The Australian 23 November 2018.
the coalition again showing they are an old world outdated Dishonest and willfully ignorant party. the “carbon tax” scare campaign has started already. More blatant lies from the coalition. I am sure many here will be cheering on the continued dishonesty of this government just as they do on dishonesty about Negative Gearing and removing the double dipping franking credits rort. All this while house prices continue to drop and coal fired generating plants drop off line at the first sign of heat as has occurred in NSW, Vic and QLD in recent weeks. Oh by the way I dont see any of the cons here calling for a Royal Commission into the recent workplace death at the Yallourn power station explosion? One thing is certain, the dishonest hypocritical coalition will do all they can to divide the nation and continue to run dishonest misinformation campaigns in an effort to hold onto seats at the next election.
Another “Barry Crocker” for ScoMo today Mr. Insider as we see Liberal MP Julia Banks has quit the Party and will sit as an Independent.
The numbers appear to be there now to be able to refer Peter Dutton to the High Court to see if he is eligible to take the “Queens Shilling”.
I do hope ScoMo has a Flagon of Whisky back in his Parliamentary Chambers but being a good Christian he might add some “Holy Water” to it.
https://tinyurl.com/yddcqlcq
Banks bolts. Minority government gets minoritier. Interesting times.
Here we have a clearly identified minority being widely pilloried and the AHRC are nowhere to be seen! Disgraceful.
Julia Banks goes to the cross bench. The rats are leaving the sinking ship.
Whilst I understand her survival instinct, I do think it’s wrong when she was voted in as a Liberal. She is there for her constituents, not for herself. Her constituents have a right to determine their representative.
As usual it’s not about the people, its about themselves. Which will be their undoing.
I would like once again if I may draw comparisons between the Fed Lib/Nats and the SS Titanic.
The only problem, given the many “Captaincy” changes, is who will play “Captain Edward Smith” and grip the shuddering wheel as the Bow slips beneath the waves and the Stern rears up terrifyingly, Boadicea. Cheers
“white male and stale” I think was her description of her colleagues.
She is allowed to call them stale and male but, if we are to make this country colour blind, leave race out of it.
She is one of Turnbull’s supporters who seem to be following his son’s statement a few months back which went along the lines that, if need be, the Liberal party needs to be gutted and rebuilt.
They sure as hell in the process of succeeding with that.
No, she is allowed to call them white male and stale. And she did.
I’ll bet she has a much more interesting list of descriptors in private.
She was quite happy to go along with them when it suited her.
“The gift of time and reflection,” she declared, had provided “some clarity regarding the brutal blow against the leadership” of Malcolm Turnbull in August.
wassat say?
She’s had a convo with her constituents and got told to pull the trigger.
so She has
good on her
Quite so smoke! I doubt her constituents are neo-fascists so she has indeed done the right thing.
The Constitution says representatives are “directly chosen by the people”, no mention of parties; but you could say that being a member of a party was part of their promise to their constituents. In that case, they would have give good reasons to their constituents as to why they changed their position. I think Banks did that, very clearly.
Well she could resign and stand again at the next election as an Independent, JO’H as she is currently misrepresenting the choice of her constituents, and diminishing their vote.
JO’H, Whether or not you have the inside info as to what exactly Banks gave her constituents re her decision to rat on her party is irrelevant. Her hissy fit was obviously closely connected to and followed on from Turnbull engineering his own downfall. As you may know, the decision as to who leads the Party has nought to do with constituents.
As a general objection to the use of “baseball bats” and or “cricket bats” as applied to the Viclibs and others worthy, I lean towards that splendid expression attributed to our Diggers in the first big show. Or adaptions thereof.
‘We gave ’em piss and pickhandles.”
Yep, that’s an old favourite
A tad vulgar, Mr. Baptiste but indeed very much to the point and effective. Cheers
I think it was Gary who sermed convinced that the Chinese were doing away with their coal- fired power stations and becoming clean and green?
Well they are apparently constructing coal-fired power stations all over the place in other countries.
Perhaps they intend to supply them from their huge China Stone mine just next door to Adani?
Yvonne continues to get it wrong. No surprises. I feel sorry for the latest object of one of your obsessions. As usual facts do NOT support your ridiculous toxic comments. “A new study has put paid to the myth that the world’s developing nation’s are keeping the coal-fired generators burning, revealing that emerging economies are not only leading global renewable energy investment and development, but have slashed their new coal plant build by nearly half” “the same time, they brought on line the least amount of new coal-fired power generating capacity since at least 2006, with a new coal build in 2017 that was 38 per cent lower than the year before, at 48GW”
https://reneweconomy.com.au/another-coal-myth-busted-as-developing-nations-turn-to-renewables-80661/
Your go to rent seeker site once more quoted.
They’re building quite a few Boa.
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/01/climate/china-energy-companies-coal-plants-climate-change.html
little milton your link is over 12 months out of date. usual weak effort. No surprises.
The Angry Inch – yeh, that did pass my mind, so here you go:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/sep/26/satellite-images-show-runaway-expansion-of-coal-power-in-china
https://www.instituteforenergyresearch.org/fossil-fuels/coal/coal-dead-china/
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-46310807
That last link was 6 days old so reasonably contemporaneous. My goodness you are thick. Too much time wasted watching the youngsters pump iron methinks!
So they stopped building them over the last 12 months?
I wonder if it may now dawn on some of our politicians that they take the shock jocks, of all media forms, far more seriously than do the public at large.
A thoroughly perspicacious observation.
It would appear SA Jay’s Adelaide Hospital monument has been a complete failure!
Disaster by the sounds of it. I would guess that they did not get enough input from those who actually work in those areas.
When I worked in that field, for a company that designed hospitals, uni’s, research labs and the like, that was a priority.
Which was at times not appreciated by the bureaucrats who thought they knew it all
I make no comment considering the fiasco that is going on at the newly opened Northern Beaches Hospital.
I was sitting on that. I heard that part of the problem was large absences of various consumables. So order some!
sigh, you obviously have not spoken to anyone who has been treated at the new hospital. Oh you did not mention the new Liberal government Cut health funding in their first budget. now they have paid $Millions of taxpayer funds to howards biggest investment Korda Mentha to create a report to further cut funding across the health portfolio. The hospital is a resounding success and will continue to serve the people of SA for decades. Have a look around the Nation and see how every hospital build has experienced the same struggles. razor you continue to highlight how out of touch with reality you are. The second most populace state in the Nation have just shown the majority of Australians are not interested in your toxic ideology’s dishonest negativity. I have said it before, stick to what you know, so we don’t have to hear from you much at all. usual weak effort dishonest effort razor.
Actually SA Jay cut 100 beds when he closed the repat hospital. I’ll keep feeding you a little bit at time so you can embarrass yourself Dismal.
Well you started off saying it was a complete failure. For it to be so it would have to mean nobody had been treated there. I think the erudite Dismayed may well be correct in suggesting you are out of touch with reality.
I understand your chagrin though, Jay, was he that bloke doing the renewable thing?
Fair enough, you stamp your little tootsies.
He was the bloke! He was the one who gave Sth Australia the highest electricity prices in the world!
The other hospital upgrades started years before the old repat was closed. You are lying as usual.
The repat is a different hospital. It is old and crumbling. you are thrashing about and only embarrassing yourself. It is the new Liberal government that has made huge cuts to health already in less than one year and have used a private consultancy to try and justify more. You have not made any mention of the upgrades to 3 other major hospitals in the last couple of years all under the previous government. You are more desperate than usual and being more dishonest than usual. You inferiority complex is getting out of hand again. No surprises
No Dismal when the repat closed there was a net loss of 100 beds in the system. SA Jay had to try and reverse his decision.
I do like the way folk from Queensland and Tasmania speak with such authority on a hospital in Adelaide, without mentioning disastrous examples of public health in their own states. The new Northern Beaches hospital in Sydney is not mentioned though….funny that. All I can say is when my husband had a brain hemorrhage twenty years ago, you know where they sent him?……Adelaide that’s where and you know why…..because that’s where the best neurologist was…and still is. A Tasmanian hospital caused the unnecessary death of my Aunt and the Queensland health department’s incompetence ensured an old friend died a painful and unnecessary death from cancer. Pisses me off when uninformed people think they can make comments because a) they used to work for a company that built hospitals (?) and b) they think they are scoring points against people who come from SA. I just hope neither of you need to use a hospital in an emergency is all I can say.
Now _there’s_ a surprise.
“Poor” Malcolm Turnbull, Mr. Insider, he’s obviously very hurt by his brutal shafting by Abbott and Co via the ‘glove puppet” Dutton, but let’s face it he started it back when he shafted Abbott.
What goes around comes around Mal big boy and after all your major achievement was to get a record 38 Consecutive Negative Newspolls, one I am sure that will stand for many decades.
Looking forward to the Memoirs hitting the Bookstores soon.
I agree regarding the record. I cant see any Liberal leader lasting long enough to get close to that one.
Malcolm may appear to be hurt Henry, that is what is expected of him, secretly he is guffawing up his sleeve.
Mission accomplished!
Abbott is laughing loudest JB.
He will go down un hustory as the man who destroyed the Liberal Party.
They’re finished now, but I think Turnbull could have won the next election. So Abbott made sure he didn’t.
If Abbott laughs at all it will be a bitter cynical laugh. Unless of course he is really a Russian agent, and who’d a thunk that, except except except……………….. Oh my sainted babushka, which English university did he go to? And that Rhodes Scholarship, the red speedos……..
Clinton, Turnbull, KKristoffersson all Rhodes scholars. And Turnbull also has red speedos…Jesus wept… don’t tell me… omg…and Clinton has to be forced to put clothes on… oh dear… oh dear.
That bus twitter by Jack was tasteless and well out of order. Anywho, on the plus side I hear folksy is the new green and ScoMo is firing up the bbq’s near you (wear your fake crocs, cobbers!). In other news , Shorten’s starting to believe in the impossible, looking at new curtains for the lodge, checking out the LR Cristal (over rated) stocks and primed to make an unleashed and embarrassing bigger fool of himself. Watch this space!
Thought it was hilarious, emailed it to my husband who then shared it around as well😂
Twitter is toxic
No Twitter is great, you’re obviously reading the wrong Twitterers…..I have read some very funny tweets from people like Kudelka, JTI, James Jeffrey, our very own Tracey and Trivalve for example…..what is toxic is the comments section in The Australian.