Voters in five electorates will trudge to the ballot boxes this weekend.
The media has decided to run with the puerile Americanism of Super Saturday. I can think of a better nonpareil — the most undesirable and entirely avoidable waste of people’s time and money in Australian political history but admittedly that doesn’t have the same fetching ring to it.
Labor’s Tim Hammond resigned as the member for Perth for family reasons. Fair enough. The other four are enforced, Section 44 by-elections with Labor’s Josh Wilson (Fremantle), Justine Keay (Braddon) and Susan Lamb (Longman) and Rebekha Sharkie (Mayo) formerly from the Nick Xenophon Team and now from the Centre Alliance, all having been found to have rather imperfect understandings of their immediate ancestry.
In Perth and Fremantle, the Liberal Party decided long ago to put up the white flag before a vote was cast. Labor’s return in both WA seats is a no-brainer.
The seats of Longman in Queensland and Braddon in Tasmania are where the serious battles are being fought.
Picking the winners is tricky. Local seat polling is always fraught. Sample sizes are invariably small with gaping margins of error. Polling companies can focus on landline users only and be said to be excluding large demographic chunks from their sample size. Or they can use both landlines and mobile phones and not be quite sure the people they are polling actually live in the electorates up for grabs. Individual seat polling is not a solid basis for predicting winners and losers.
Less scientific but arguably a stronger guide to the results are the betting markets.
In Mayo, Sharkie is short odds-on to defeat the Liberal candidate, Georgina Downer, who is a long way back in the second line of betting at 11/2.
A glance at the betting guide in Braddon today shows Labor has moved in to become the tepid favourite, paying $1.50 with the Coalition at $2.40, with both being a tick under even money a week ago.
In Longman, the market has been all over the shop in the past month but as of today the LNP’s Trevor Ruthenberg leads the Labor’s Lamb $1.65 to $2.20.
The reliability of betting markets is similarly problematic. In what I imagine are fairly small betting pools, odds can be skewed with as little as a couple of hundred down on one candidate or another.
Amid all the unwelcome campaigning and unwanted badgering of people going peacefully about their business, we must bow our heads in silent prayer for the good people of Longman especially. The by-election offers not a Melbourne Cup but more a dismally untalented Cox Plate field of 11 hopefuls, offering little more than a Hobson’s choice for voters.
Susan Lamb’s tale of Section 44 woe came to a head after a tearful speech she made to the parliament, speaking of family dislocation. Her father had passed away many years back and her relationship with her mother was non-existent, she claimed. Then Lamb’s stepmother entered the discussion with her own view of the truth leading to accusations Lamb had misled the parliament.
The LNP candidate, Trevor Ruthenberg, has been forced to apologise after overstating his military honours, not once or twice but thrice on various parliamentary and personal websites. The former fitter and turner also found the term engineer had a more compelling feel to it. We could call it quibbling over not very much, but it would seem Big Trev has done a bit of a Hyacinth Bucket on his resume.
Over in One Nation land, the PHON candidate, Matthew Stephen, has been under fire for what is said to be a somewhat casual attitude to his creditors.
But it gets worse in Longman. Much worse.
Number two on the ballot paper is Jim Saleam from the Australia First Party. Those of a certain vintage with solid long-term memories will recall Saleam getting about in brown shirts and swastika armbands in the 1970s as leader of a neo-Nazi group called National Action.
Back then his sidekick, Ross “The Skull” May was often seen at Saleam’s side looking photogenic in the full Nazi kit with his pointy bald bonce and Coke bottle glasses. Sadly, it would seem the master race is prone to strabismus (crossed eyes) and microcephaly (pinheadism).
The last I heard of The Skull was in 2014 when he was said to be running with a group of ugly misfits called Squadron 88 (the 88 is code for Heil Hitler, the letter ‘h’ being the eighth in the alphabet), who were passing out flyers threatening dark-skinned Sydneysiders with serious assault.
Saleam, who claims to have moved on from those heady days, has served two jail terms, one for property offences and fraud in 1984, the other for being an accessory before the fact in a 1989 shotgun attack on the home of an African National Congress representative who was living in Australia at the time.
Meanwhile down in Braddon, there are reports that the Australia People’s Party candidate, Bruno Strangio, is an undischarged bankrupt. If so, clearly both he and Saleam would be ineligible to sit in the federal Parliament in the unlikely event they would win.
If anything, the so-called Super Saturday reveals our democracy may not yet be cooked but it is roasting slowly over the embers of ineptitude and straight out electoral chicanery. Just to clarify, it is not the Australian Electoral Commission’s role to test the eligibility of candidates. All candidates sign a statutory declaration specifically stating they are eligible under Section 44 of the Constitution.
There may yet be more Section 44 surprises to come. In what is yet untested in the High Court, triumphant candidates may be found to be ineligible for receiving preferences from candidates who are prima facie ineligible. Labor and the LNP have both put Saleam last but PHON has placed Saleam above Labor. In Braddon, the Liberals have preferenced Strangio ahead of Labor.
Will it matter? In a close-run election it might and then the prospect looms of the people of Braddon and Longman having to do it all over again. Again.
I’m exhausted just thinking about it and no doubt like the denizens of Braddon and Longman, I think it’s time I had a long lie down.
This article was first published in The Australian on 25 July 2018.
“Leave the keys to The Lodge, and go,” says Bill Shorten and he went on, Mr. Insider: ” Bill Shorten has urged Malcolm Turnbull to drop his company tax cuts, but if he does, he should resign, or call an election.
“If he drops his tax cuts, he needs to go with them and hand over to people either on his side, or indeed, have an election, so we have people who actually believe in their economic policies. Put them forward to the people,” Mr. Shorten said.”
Strewth.
https://tinyurl.com/ycth36rl
Spin, spin, spin. Having said that it would be a huge backflip from MT.
“Prime Minister William Richard Shorten” now that sounds ok, Mr. Insider looks like we will have to get used to it anyway by May as Pyne let slip. Nothing bar a “beam me up Scotty” moment will now stop William Richard from being PM folks.
The bad news just keeps coming, Mr. Insider for the hapless and hopeless PM Turnbull as he scores his 37th Consecutive Negative Newspoll today. Turnbull you “magnificent bastard” can you make 50 or 60 before the Voters of Australia show you and your silly Government the door? I wonder how ex-ousted PM Abbott feels today?
https://tinyurl.com/y72bmegb
Unless something untoward happens internationally that might save the Libs, I don’t think there is much doubt that Labor will romp it in next election. I couldn’t care less really, but the thought of Shorten on the world stage dealing with the likes of Trump is pretty scary.
If they hadn’t gone off on a tangent about pokies, Labor would probably be in power here too. They will win next time around -but by then the Libs may have sold us off to the Chinese.
After we had Abbott shirt-fronting Putin Boa, how much worse could it get?
Malcolm Bligh Turnbull is indeed already yesterday’s man imho, Boadicea. Make way for William Richard Shorten our soon to be new PM. Cheers
That’s a possibility. The Libs would flog their grandmothers to slave traders if there was a market for granny slaves.
Here is what Wineglass Bay will look like in about ten years.
https://www.google.com.au/search?q=crowded+Chinese+beach&tbm=isch&tbo=u&source=univ&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwighoqpycXcAhVKvLwKHbcOCf8QsAR6BAgFEAE&biw=1288&bih=672
And I have just secured the ice cream vendors concession! Yeeehah!
Ye Gads JB what a sight!
Bye Bye tourism Tasmania….😔
JB says: “Here is what Wineglass Bay will look like in about ten years.” ???
But, but, but, …….. JB, your man Guy McPherson said we’d all be extinct well before then.
You finally seen the light me old mate?
I still say twenty, a hopeless optimist. Now think a little Carl, that’s all those people on the journey to the polar extremes trying to avoid the inevitable. Last stop before the Antarctic.
Yep. Go visit before it gets like that JB. Magnificent spot
Been there, done that a few times. It’s okay.
It would be much more interesting with a million Chinese buying ice creams.
Well Abbott was an idiot on the world stage…how do U think Dutts would go?
Brilliantly.
How would he go relating to Omar al-Bashir?
Jeez
More brilliantly idiotic than Abbott? Phew! Big ask, but yes Dutts on his game could do it.
Yes, JB, there’s only one other person (hint – he’s got orange hair), who comes close to matching the international relations skills of Dutts and Abbott.
The “world stage” is no doubt still getting e-mails and phone calls from Kevin Rudd. I still recoil from the thought of the “world stage” lining up to greet el magnifico. And Gillard couldn’t put a foot wrong until she tripped over one of them.
Credit were due, Putin hasn’t had the guts to come back here after Abbott’s threat!
Yeah of course Milton, Vladimir has really pulled his head in since the raw onion eating half wit Tony Abbott threatened to shirtfront him! He had his chance, I guess he just plain forgot eh?
Nice try but you cant hide your cringe at your heroes with a diversion , they are hopeless, you know it , we know it. But you have my sympathy, it must be awful you poor thing.
Nah. Libnats will bolt it in. Same ol same ol, big terror/security scare, bash the bejesus out of the Labor leader, constant haranguing from the shock jobs, unions are evil, all that same old winning formula.
The “real owners”, we will decide whom and when we willow to run the country, might let Labor have another term somewhere down the track when the pillaging is a bit sparse or the conservatives couldn’t be bothered refloating the wreck, but it wont be this time. I wouldn’t hold my breath.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hAXoGxLx6yk
The thought of Bill Shorten dealing with Trump couldn’t be any worse than Turncoat’s grovelling at his feet Boadicea. Now that is scary.
But poor Tassie mate, having to cope with a government that’ll throw the forests & your gorgeous wild places under the bus all to keep favour with foreign interests who are being allowed to buy up the rest. 😕
Yep its depressing at times Bella. I’m just glad I have had the opportunity to go to wonderful places here – when they were still secret and amazing
Me too Boa but I want my son’s future children & their children to be able to enjoy the same pristine wilderness areas as I have.
The threat of losing that to foreign interests who’ve zero understanding of conservation values fills me with rage against this bloody sell-out to China the Fibs are backing, all against the national interest.
Well, there’s a thing, went into the garage earlier today and there was a little furry thing on the floor.
Think he’s a rather small rat, thought I had heard something in the wall in the lounge the other day and suspect it may have been him. He didn’t move so obviously not in the best of ratty health I don’t know if he’s injured or starving or what, so found a sheltered bit of shrubbery out the front and left him to his own devises mainly thinking he might pass away in peace.
Still going as it got dark, brought him in and put him in the fuzzy carrier with some water/seed and a blanket and on checking him found him sitting in the water and the ungrateful little bugger bit me lucky for the glove, husband said “he must be feeling better”
I’ve put him under the blanket and he seems happy there, see how he is in the morning if he’s not perked up I think off to the vet is the kindest thing
Tracy, I don’t want to come all Basil Fawlty on you but what you have there is a rat and Bubonic plague is not all that uncommon around the Sydney harbour at least in the early part of the 20th Century.
He must be called Basil Tracy. No alternatives.
I kept thinking of that biscuit tin with the “Basil “ in it!
Couldn’t leave him out for the neighbours horrendous cat, noticed the bloody thing prowling near where I thought he would be safe.
He’s now gone to the great rat “whatever” in the sky and the cat hasn’t had a free meal
Or rabies! Hope it didn’t pierce the skin, Tracy
Don’t buy any green bananas until next Monday, OK?
Two sorts of rats Tracey – native ones and the rest.
If it is native – all the TLC you can find – non-native feed to the ferrets 🙂
https://australianmuseum.net.au/is-it-a-rat
.
No rabies in Oz Boa
Yep you’re quite right, Tracy. Apologies- a hangover from my life in Africa, where rabies was always on the cards.
I hadn’t realised Oz was rabies free.
Don’t believe a word of it Boady, we have a rabies here alright. A particularly insidious strain. Just have a look at the Government front bench.
Think he was a native JS, had the nose shape but the tail was longer than it should have been, was a bit confused as to whether I had a rat or mouse.
It’s all moot now, he had an injury on his hind left leg and I don’t know if it was this that drove him into the garage or even how long he had been there.
We do get Bush rats coming in in the early autumn and I leave the sensor lights around downstairs to encourage them to leave, only had to resort to baiting once as they chewed through some wiring in the office.
He was very weak when I found him and I kept the gloves on because I thought he’d be somewhat stressed and liable to bite (he did) thought the kindest thing was to keep him comfortable until I could get him to the vet but nature saw to it.
Basil is now under a fern, RIP
RIP Basil.
I’m sure Basil is irreplaceable, Tracy but if you would like another rat, or mouse, to fill the void help yourself to my backyard shed. It is unlocked (which must explain how they get in). Spent some time last week clearing out a mound of macadamia nut shells they had turned into a sort of Ratisson Hotel. Catch one and i’ll throw in 50 free.
Ask yourself, are you keeping it alive for you, and your giant heart, or for him. Sometimes its kindest to let go.
best regards.
I couldn’t leave him out there for the cat with no bell on his collar that isn t kept in at night Wraith.
Was surprised he got through the night, but by 8 am he was gone
Good on you Tracy, friend of mine had two pet rats which I thought were kind of cute. Not sure that we all have to conform and only have pets which fit in with people’s idea of normal. Having said that living in SE Asia for part of each year, I think I would move very slowly past a rat if I found one on the floor. They are definitely not cute. We did had to deal with a badly injured baby bat on our balcony last year which was hard because he had curled up under the table. But I agree with Perentie, your love for all creatures great and small is wonderful. R.I.P Basil
Not too many folks would go to the lengths you do to save a creature in need. You have my respect Tracy, you’re a goodie.
“You can always tell something about a person by the way they put their hands on an animal.” Betty White
Please take this as a compliment. You remind me of my mother. All living creatures deserve care. She is as close to a saint as anyone could be and would think you are too.
The shovel would have been my implement of choice……
I hope Mr Howard keeps campaigning hard coz wherever he goes the Liberals get smashed. Stay home John!
The rat theme continues
Don’t think the ODI between Sri Lanka and SA is going to last long, SL 36/5
Labor have nothing to crow about according to Turnbull. Like hell. After all the crap that has been talked by him, his ministers and his shifty candidates, they have at the very least cause to be satisfied. And vindicated.
I’d like to see the victory notes that were cobbled together for Mal on the off-chance that they picked one up. The crowing would have been murder.
That’s his problem. He can’t pretend the last ten weeks didn’t happen.
Only the last 10 weeks Jack?
But he will & I hope he pretends right up til the election.
trumble=arsegrapes
I can’t say that I followed this closely, but the impression I have is that Turnbull talked these by elections up into a big contest between he and Shorten, and only in the last week did some smarter Coalition voices make the obvious point that history suggests governments don’t win these things.
If that is accurate then it is yet another example of Malcolm’s lack of political smarts and judgement, not quite in the Godwin Grech league but not too far behind it either.
When you throw in his hopeless campaigning it all looks like an easy win for Labor coming up.
I reckon Labor should shout it from the rooftops.
Well done to the voters too, who are finally waking up and rejecting the self-serving policies of the greediest, nastiest government in history.
so now Dutton for the big seat.
Excellent
And i don’t know whether it was a slip of the tongue but Pyne on Insiders mentioned the next election being in May, hence a full term.
nah they will go early
Wanna bet smoke?