The overwhelming view is the Andrews government will win the Victorian election comfortably, possibly extending its margin in the lower house, but an analysis based on betting markets in individual seats reveals a strong possibility that Labor will find itself in minority government come Saturday night.
A ReachTel/Fairfax poll published on Friday morning has the Andrews government ahead 54-46 two party preferred. If accurate, this would mean Labor could pick up as many as five Coalition held seats (Ripon, Morwell, South Barwon and Burwood). Herald Sun Galaxy has it at 53-47.
The betting markets, however, do not see it that way.
At present, Labor nominally holds 46 seats in the 88 seat Legislative Assembly.
If we look at the betting markets alone, Labor is tipped to lose the inner-city seats of Richmond and Brunswick to the Greens, forcing it into minority government.
There remains the prospect that Labor may grab a seat or two from the Coalition but on the betting markets, the Coalition is favoured to hold all its marginal seats with the possible exception of South Barwon where the betting has Labor and the Coalition neck-and-neck at $1.80.
I’ve been doing an analysis on state and federal elections for some time now based on average polling figures which I cast across the electoral pendulum to identify seats in play and then examine the betting on those seats in an attempt to predict the overall outcome.
I usually get to within three or four seats of the actual margin even when the results have been something of a surprise. I predicted Labor would win minority government in Queensland in 2015 (Palaszczuk/Labor ended up winning with a majority of two with 35 seats changing hands) and tipped the Coalition to have a majority of two in the 2016 federal election. Close enough.
The problem in the Victorian election is the polling has been threadbare and I am not entirely certain about the accuracy of some of it. This morning’s ReachTel/Fairfax poll has the Coalition’s primary vote at 36 per cent. That’s a decline of five per cent on the 2014 election result. The poll has Labor’s primary vote increasing by one per cent on the 2014 actual. How that translates into 54-46 Labor’s way (up from 52-48 in 2014) is difficult to understand. I presume the polling company has applied preference flows from the 2014 result, but this is vexed.
My view, based on the entirely unscientific basis of speculation, is that the primary vote of both the majors will decline with the minors and independents getting around 25 per cent of the primary vote. That would be a new record in the state. Polling companies face difficulties in establishing a two-party preferred figure based on historical preference flows when the ‘other’ vote is on the rise.
With increasing numbers of voters pre-polling these days, betting markets are likely to be more accurate and offer fewer surprises.
There are caveats of course. The individual seat markets in state elections are based on relatively small betting pools. The bookies won’t let on how much dough they are carrying. It may be just a few hundred dollars or in some seats nothing at all.
No good analysis should be devoid of a little guesswork. I would say overall that Greens voters, damn their oily hides, tend not to punt on elections, this being contrary to their desolate, fun-free view of the world. So, where markets reflect the Greens are going OK, they are probably doing better than that.
The good news for Labor from this analysis is that it is short odds-on to retain a brace of marginals in Melbourne’s southeast, the so-called law and order seats of Frankston, Carrum, Bentleigh and Mordialloc. It holds the first three of these by margins of less than one per cent. In Frankston and Carrum, the bookies have Labor at $1.33 to hold and in Bentleigh $1.20 to retain the seat it won from the Coalition in the 2014 election.
The Coalition may pinch the seat of Prahran back from the Greens but the betting in the inner-city seat south of the Yarra is as murky as the river itself with the bookies offering little better that even money the field.
The three-cornered contest has the Coalition at $2.30, Labor at $2.40 and the Greens at $2.75.
The market shows the Coalition’s attempt to win back Morwell from former National turned independent, Russell Northe is possible although Northe remains outright favourite ($2.25, Coalition $2.75, Labor $3.00).
Labor is learning the hard way the seats it coughed up to the Greens are not likely to come back anytime soon. It lost the seat of Melbourne to the Greens in the 2014 election. The Greens are at $1.36 to retain, Labor at $2.40. In Northcote, which Labor lost in a by-election to the Greens after the death of the sitting member, Fiona Richardson, the Greens are at $1.30 to retain with Labor $3.50.
No joy there for Premier Dan.
My best guess is the two major parties will lose in all seats where Greens or independents are sitting members. Interestingly, the Ipsos/Fairfax poll has the Greens vote coming down, so Labor may yet hold Richmond and Brunswick.
Labor has dragged out the ultimate heavy hitter, former Prime Minister Paul Keating to give its flagging campaign in Richmond some momentum. Planning Minister, Richard Wynne is in the gun. In a letter released to the media, Keating criticised Opposition leader, Matthew Guy, for failing to run a candidate in Richmond.
“Matthew Guy is attempting to defeat Planning Minister Richard Wynne by leaving the field wide open to the Greens. And what motivation would Mr Guy have for such a strategy; obviously to do the bidding of the property development industry, with whom he is so close,” Mr Keating wrote.
I love it when you talk dirty, Paul.
This is the first occasion in almost ten years where the betting markets have been at odds with the polling. It will be interesting to see what stands up on Saturday night.
Be it on polling or the hard earned of the punters, the prospect of a Coalition victory in Victoria is so minute it may only be visible through an electron microscope. But if the betting is the stronger guide, Dan Andrews’ celebrations might be tempered by the knowledge he will be governing only with a nod from the Greens.
This column as first published in The Australian 23 November 2018.
Simon Benson, the bloke who some years back said Labor would take us $800 billion into debt, with no proof or modelling I might add, really tops this in today’s Oz. With the recent Newspoll showing Shorten a clear 10 points ahead of The Pastor, Benson and his mate Mr Cater says “Scott Morrison is promising to open an intimate war with Bill Shorten over the next six months, using his clear personal electoral dominance blah blah”…what clear electoral dominance? Is Benson mad? Then he adds The Pastor is going to get ‘personal’ with Stan OMG why doesn’t he start talking policy for once instead of scare? Obviously the Looters have learnt Zilch from their recent crucifixions in the by-elections and the Danslide in Vict. Then of course there was good old Chris Kenny’s blurred vision prediction:- “Daniel Andrews is finished. …….A drovers dog could beat him”. GULP!
I must remonstrate with you BASSMAN, your insensitivity in describing the conservative losses as “crucifixions”
is beyond the pale. We are dealing with many deeply pious Christians here who believe deeply in giving the shirts off their backs to the poor, rendering a welcome to the persecuted and downtrodden in the spirit of the Good Samaritan, and honouring generally the teachings of our saviour Jesus.
“Floggings” perhaps? Yes I like floggings, such a motif of Christian suffering don’t you think? Wonderfully appropriate now that I think of it, appropriate and much deserved.
You can’t really “model” debt BASSMAN when you have a fool in power who spends willy nilly as Rudd did.
I have fears for Australia if Shorten lets the power of office go to his head and opens the Purse Strings way too wide. Still haven’t made up my mind who to vote for yet, you never know ScoMo may be “overthrown” pre-election. Cheers
The coalition have spent at over 25.5% of GDP for the entire time in government more than doubling debt. Overall taxation has also risen more than 2% of GDP under this coalition. You have an aversion to facts dont you.
I can’t see why he wouldn’t be “overthrown” Henry, seeing as loyalty is extinct in politics now.
Who doesn’t recall ScuMo’s proud declaration of “This is my leader” as he stood beside Turnbull, who replied in the soppiest, small voice “Thanks ScoMo”.
All on the day before he stole his job. What a pack of wankers.
We were the only country not to go in recession. Hockey said he would have had to spend the same amount to avoid 10% unemployment. The spending was on solid Treasury advice. Not just Rudd. Abbott was handed the strongest economy in the world with high growth, lower unemployment than Abbott and a AAA rating….Blow-you are Barking mad.
Oh my goodness, this upcoming event should put the frighteners into Morrison & Co.
https://www.smartenergy.org.au/news/malcolm-turnbull-headline-nsw-smart-energy-summit-december-4
A real hoot of a Chrissy present from the ex!
I say Bella, regarding the “upcoming exciting event”, I suppose the smart energy folk running the show would not countenance wild life ‘collateral damage’ as an agenda item.
But then again, it’d be a tad too squeamish for the well-healed (read Turnbull, et al) to discuss the effectiveness and efficiency of a wind turbine making mince meat out of a wedge tail eagle for instance. Just think of it ….., one second its a majestic raptor, minding its own business in its own domain, soaring, surfing and circling the air currents in absolute graceful bliss; next second its nothing more than small gobbets of far flung coagulated blood, bones, feathers and shite.
Yes, no real hoot of a Chrissy present for the young ‘uns back in the nest expecting a feed and a lesson on fledgling.
I’ll just have a quiet little weep for the birds while the fund managers, venture capitalists and various smart energy folk preen themselves and fondle their silver, including courtesy of the taxpayer.
My kind regards, as always.
Carl
C’mon Carl, you more than others must know that post would hurt me personally so why?
Personal attacks are not my thing & I won’t start now. You surprise me though.
I’ll only say whilst we’re talking renewables how long will it be until the next mass extinction if we don’t wake-up to the science & divest from 1950’s dirty coal mines whose filthy emissions put us in this position in the first place? I’d bet the house the dirty resources folk also “fondle their silver courtesy of the taxpayer” since they’ve been subsidised big time by us for decades, unlike clean energy sources.
Watch him. His gratuitous descriptions of the manner in which he imagines birds to die in the blades of wind turbines are passive aggressive at best. You can just imagine his wicked spine chilling sniggers as he writes them. Oooooh.
Any idea how many birds are killed by domestic cats each year? Do you have a cat?
Perhaps you could lend your disturbingly lurid talent for describing animal deaths to a cat doing in a bird?
Your juvenile hoots from the sidelines has become par for your course JB. My comments were specifically related to an upcoming “smart energy summit” which would no doubt include some mention of wind farms. Hence my reference to wildlife causalities. Just let me know when the next feline summit is on and I’ll give you a spray about irresponsible cat husbandry.
Your sniggering from the bleaches is never a good look me old mate
Same goes for NBTB @ 3.49PM below.
Mention of wildlife causalities! Pah you were revelling in them.
CotC
Just wondering if you get weepy every time you look at a major arterial? Ever driven across the Nullabor?
Cars and trucks are way more efficient in ‘making mincemeat out of a wedge tail eagle’
Just think of it ….., one second its a majestic raptor, minding its own business in its own domain, soaring, surfing and circling the air currents in absolute graceful bliss; next second its nothing more than small gobbets of far flung coagulated blood, bones, feathers and shite splattered across the grill.
More evidence that the Looters have really lost their marbles: at Question Time today, The Pastor dismissed the idea of a federal ICAC as a “fringe issue” – how out of touch with public opinion could you be?? Memories of the Banks RC he voted against 27 times, was dragged kicking and screaming and THEN wanted to take the credit for it! Typical Looters.
Just as stupid is the line the Looters are all singing in chorus equating batteries for solar energy with pink bats mk2: with so many people with solar panels, the battery proposal will be very popular!
The died-in-the-wool Loots have a DEATH WISH! They genuinely believe that it’s better to be PURE than compromise their ideology. They are just like old time communists!!! Morrison and his gang of thieves have learnt nothing from all of the by-election losses and the loss of the Jewel in The Crown-Victoria.
The polling for the Victorian election was about as accurate as the polling for the US Presidential Election. I’m sure goat entrails would be more accurate. It’s impossible to believe any polling. Mathematical voodoo and wishful thinking.
I’m leaving tomorrow to fish my way down the NSW south coast and on around to Adelaide in time for the 1st Test. I don’t expect Australia to win. Our Women’s team however are doing us proud. Go girls, you’re all we’ve got.
Correct Wiz:- I don’t believe the Newspoll with Stan 10 points ahead. It is closer than dis Bald and will get much closer during the campaign proper.
moronson claims in QT today Andrews won because of his good coalition federal government? and continued to amp up the full trump effort in QT. Between him and Shorten. Shorten will turn this around and say this is about Australia not him or the Pastor PM. The one positive of the Vic. and then NSW elections for the Feds is the electorate will have already have worked through a lot of their negativity towards the worst government to ever represent this Nation by the time May comes around next year.
Interesting 6minute clip on “What Would happen if the Sun Disappeared”, Mr. Insider.
Yes, we are stuffed but not quite as quick as we may think although panic would break out am sure.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YAjDtCuOHrA
Blame the Russians.
JB, from the previous topic where I calmly and cautiously commented upon your concerns re the Antarctic ice melt, including a slight difference of opinion/belief to the one held by yourself. You responded with a high degree of exasperation and admonishment, indicating I was a “prevaricating driveller” and that my “bizarre twisted quibbling is unworthy”.
I do understand your obvious difficulty in attempting character assessments when you are adversely consumed by emotion JB. But then again, who am I to deny or to accept your appraisal? However, it appears my one consolation in this instance is to seek refuge in the fact that I may be in good company, as the undermentioned quote from the same publication source you linked to your 22 Nov 9.41PM offering would indicate.
“A new study published in the Journal of Glaciology by a team led by NASA researcher Jay Zwally produces a surprising and controversial new estimate of large mass gains. Zwally’s team has been working on satellite measurements of ice height for some time, but this estimate is significantly different from even their own previous work.”
So, its your “ice melts” vs NASA’s “large mass gains”. But I wouldn’t get too hot under the collar about it JB. As far as I’m concerned its only water under the bridge me old mate.
I have no difficulty with your character assessment Carl, it’s a no brainer.
Try and keep up, just let go, stop grasping at straws.
Lets keep it simple. melting sea ice will not make any difference to sea level. Are you with this so far?
Land ice entering the oceans as bergs which will melt, and meltwater entering the oceans will cause a rise in sea level.
Are you still with us?
Ocean levels are rising. Nah, lost ya again.
https://www.skepticalscience.com/argument.php?a=21&p=4
I’m still with you JB, and quite able to follow you obvious non-ordained layperson’s view of the subject at hand, notwithstanding your struggle to keep your head above the proverbial AGW water.
What you appear to be attempting to convey is that the various climate change synthesis reports offer conservative projections of sea level increase based on ASSUMPTIONS about future behavior of ice sheets and glaciers, leading to ESTIMATES of sea level ROUGHLY following a linear upward trend MIMICKING that of recent decades. Observed sea level rise HINTS at acceleration while at the same time it APPEARS the mass balance of continental ice envisioned is OVERLY OPTIMISTIC.
Let me know if you need further assistance in other relevant matters me old mate.
Well I’m glad you are not assisting anyone to cross the street. That would be certain death.
My intuitive jury is equivocating between the views that you are just a nut case or a mischievous clown
https://www.carbonbrief.org/heat-absorbed-by-oceans-has-doubled-since-1997
My 9.59am ‘ice melt’ synopsis was lifted directly from one of the many links you so ardently and enthusiastically embrace JB. So perhaps you should extract your noggin from wherever it obviously resides and take a glimpse of the sunshine occasionally.
I can offer you a beginner’s lesson in climate comprehension if you so desire me old mate.
What a fraud you are Carl It was a contentious and now proven wrong proposition for consideration included in a treatise that presented a quite different and factual synopsis.
Not only highly emotional and sensitive, Carl but also partial to bedtime stories, like this brief little piece he contributed recently: “Once upon a time we were not experiencing the weather events that are behind the massive fires occurring all over the planet”. Doesn’t take old mate long to put the kids to sleep!
And have you noticed, despite your prompting, that Jean’s none too keen to respond to the posts by Wiss. I’d put that down to once bitten, twice shy babe.
You have written from a redoubt of ignorance again Milton.
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/heres-what-we-know-about-wildfires-and-climate-change/
My reply challenging the “Wiss” and his extraordinary mathematics and bizarre extrapolation that something clearly exponential will continue at the current rate seems to have gone missing.
Don’t be shy, Jean post it again. Otherwise we’ll think you are full of shit.
Bring it up in the next blog and I will put my memory to work on it. You have the gist of it there actually, do you really need n very simple terms?
Silly question.
BTW Earlier in my reply it is made evident that you are clearly full of shit.
What would NASA know anyway Carl, they only put a Man on the Moon 6 times and have just landed a new Rover on MARS yesterday.
Let’s see now its Mr. Baptiste, knowledgeable that he is, versus NASA, goodness that’s an easy call. Cheers
I thought black holes were dense. Unbelievable, you still believe that propaganda drivel Henry.
Hold it, no, I emoted, it is entirely believable that you believe in fairy stories for the lightweights.
Does your brain have any computing faculty or are you just some of record/playback machine?
Current Betting on the likely outcome of the Federal Election is Labor 1.16, Coalition 4.50 to form a government. (Sportsbet)
Doesn’t look like much of a race at all.
Hope dannyboi is enjoying this. Coz this is as good as it gets
If any message has been learnt by the Liberals from the recent Danslide in Victoria and the recent huge by-election losses it is this- the party must move back to the centre on climate change, renewable energy and social issues. Menzies was very clear that his party was not a conservative party. The only way the party can reform is if hard right-wing elements like Abbott, Dutton, Kelly, Abetz, Joyce, Cash, Andrews and the like can be voted out so the process of renewal can begin as a matter of urgency.
Dunno Bassy – they are inner city issues.
I suspect one of the major reasons, which has not seen light of day, was that Victorians did not trust/like Matthew Guy. There were a host of criticisms of him 6 months ago and apparently he micro-managed the campaign.
Victoria is rapidly becoming the California (as far as left politics is concerned and social issues ) of Australia.
Reconciling their values with much of Australia will be very interesting in the future.
The Libs have made a similar mistake in NSW – they have selected a leader who is pretty well invisible except when she is backing down from some decision after a bit of flak. She is just not cutting through .
I would not be surprised if we have a Labor Gov in NSW after March next year – and that is from 34 members compared with 52 for the Lib/Nats.
U dnt have to listen to my comments on this-just listen the Liberals Loyal Own who echo my sentiments daily!
If it was about Climate Change why were the Greens slaughtered?
it continues to be excuses daily from you razor. you just dont get it, it is not the rest of the country that is out of touch it IS you. Dishonest negative campaigns may still work way west where the rain dont fall in QLD but the rest of the country has moved into this century. No surprises. Fair dinkum.
The Greens were slaughtered because of in-fighting, sexual fiddles. Climate is in the mix because senior Liberals have said so…listen to AM
Because Jack bagged them in the last blog you dill.