The overwhelming view is the Andrews government will win the Victorian election comfortably, possibly extending its margin in the lower house, but an analysis based on betting markets in individual seats reveals a strong possibility that Labor will find itself in minority government come Saturday night.
A ReachTel/Fairfax poll published on Friday morning has the Andrews government ahead 54-46 two party preferred. If accurate, this would mean Labor could pick up as many as five Coalition held seats (Ripon, Morwell, South Barwon and Burwood). Herald Sun Galaxy has it at 53-47.
The betting markets, however, do not see it that way.
At present, Labor nominally holds 46 seats in the 88 seat Legislative Assembly.
If we look at the betting markets alone, Labor is tipped to lose the inner-city seats of Richmond and Brunswick to the Greens, forcing it into minority government.
There remains the prospect that Labor may grab a seat or two from the Coalition but on the betting markets, the Coalition is favoured to hold all its marginal seats with the possible exception of South Barwon where the betting has Labor and the Coalition neck-and-neck at $1.80.
I’ve been doing an analysis on state and federal elections for some time now based on average polling figures which I cast across the electoral pendulum to identify seats in play and then examine the betting on those seats in an attempt to predict the overall outcome.
I usually get to within three or four seats of the actual margin even when the results have been something of a surprise. I predicted Labor would win minority government in Queensland in 2015 (Palaszczuk/Labor ended up winning with a majority of two with 35 seats changing hands) and tipped the Coalition to have a majority of two in the 2016 federal election. Close enough.
The problem in the Victorian election is the polling has been threadbare and I am not entirely certain about the accuracy of some of it. This morning’s ReachTel/Fairfax poll has the Coalition’s primary vote at 36 per cent. That’s a decline of five per cent on the 2014 election result. The poll has Labor’s primary vote increasing by one per cent on the 2014 actual. How that translates into 54-46 Labor’s way (up from 52-48 in 2014) is difficult to understand. I presume the polling company has applied preference flows from the 2014 result, but this is vexed.
My view, based on the entirely unscientific basis of speculation, is that the primary vote of both the majors will decline with the minors and independents getting around 25 per cent of the primary vote. That would be a new record in the state. Polling companies face difficulties in establishing a two-party preferred figure based on historical preference flows when the ‘other’ vote is on the rise.
With increasing numbers of voters pre-polling these days, betting markets are likely to be more accurate and offer fewer surprises.
There are caveats of course. The individual seat markets in state elections are based on relatively small betting pools. The bookies won’t let on how much dough they are carrying. It may be just a few hundred dollars or in some seats nothing at all.
No good analysis should be devoid of a little guesswork. I would say overall that Greens voters, damn their oily hides, tend not to punt on elections, this being contrary to their desolate, fun-free view of the world. So, where markets reflect the Greens are going OK, they are probably doing better than that.
The good news for Labor from this analysis is that it is short odds-on to retain a brace of marginals in Melbourne’s southeast, the so-called law and order seats of Frankston, Carrum, Bentleigh and Mordialloc. It holds the first three of these by margins of less than one per cent. In Frankston and Carrum, the bookies have Labor at $1.33 to hold and in Bentleigh $1.20 to retain the seat it won from the Coalition in the 2014 election.
The Coalition may pinch the seat of Prahran back from the Greens but the betting in the inner-city seat south of the Yarra is as murky as the river itself with the bookies offering little better that even money the field.
The three-cornered contest has the Coalition at $2.30, Labor at $2.40 and the Greens at $2.75.
The market shows the Coalition’s attempt to win back Morwell from former National turned independent, Russell Northe is possible although Northe remains outright favourite ($2.25, Coalition $2.75, Labor $3.00).
Labor is learning the hard way the seats it coughed up to the Greens are not likely to come back anytime soon. It lost the seat of Melbourne to the Greens in the 2014 election. The Greens are at $1.36 to retain, Labor at $2.40. In Northcote, which Labor lost in a by-election to the Greens after the death of the sitting member, Fiona Richardson, the Greens are at $1.30 to retain with Labor $3.50.
No joy there for Premier Dan.
My best guess is the two major parties will lose in all seats where Greens or independents are sitting members. Interestingly, the Ipsos/Fairfax poll has the Greens vote coming down, so Labor may yet hold Richmond and Brunswick.
Labor has dragged out the ultimate heavy hitter, former Prime Minister Paul Keating to give its flagging campaign in Richmond some momentum. Planning Minister, Richard Wynne is in the gun. In a letter released to the media, Keating criticised Opposition leader, Matthew Guy, for failing to run a candidate in Richmond.
“Matthew Guy is attempting to defeat Planning Minister Richard Wynne by leaving the field wide open to the Greens. And what motivation would Mr Guy have for such a strategy; obviously to do the bidding of the property development industry, with whom he is so close,” Mr Keating wrote.
I love it when you talk dirty, Paul.
This is the first occasion in almost ten years where the betting markets have been at odds with the polling. It will be interesting to see what stands up on Saturday night.
Be it on polling or the hard earned of the punters, the prospect of a Coalition victory in Victoria is so minute it may only be visible through an electron microscope. But if the betting is the stronger guide, Dan Andrews’ celebrations might be tempered by the knowledge he will be governing only with a nod from the Greens.
This column as first published in The Australian 23 November 2018.
A bit off topic, Mr. Insider if I may and I do make mention of the SS Titanic on occasions in my posts and it’s interesting to note that the Builders of that ship “Harland and Wolff” of Belfast are still going strong with one of the biggest Dry Docks available in the World.
The SS Titanic may have sunk but it didn’t take Harland and Wolff with it.
http://www.harland-wolff.com/
The Titanic’s sister ships both had successful careers Henry. Harland and Wolff didn’t drive the Titanic into an iceberg. I have a beautifully illustrated book of H&W’s drawings of many of their ships kicking around in a cupboard somewhere.
The Labor candidate for Warringah was up at Forestville shops on Saturday, that was a first.
Going to be very interesting in this neck of the woods come election time.
Has Abbott been preselected for the upcoming Federal Election, Tracy? Cheers
Yes he has and he will bolt it in
Oh goody.
One Green that didn’t get elected
https://tinyurl.com/yb49vl3c
It’s not often you make a wrong call JTI, but this one was a doozy 😊 The result is extraordinary, but of course it’s only about State issues, State issues, State issues I tell you…..nothing to do with the fact that Federally the Coalition is screwed…..State issues it is. People who have never voted Labor before in their lives have done so…..the predictions for LNP aren’t good unless they can demonstrate they are listening.
I do like the fact that Brighton (don’t know how to spell the correct pronounciation) which has never ever been a Labor seat could go to a 19 year old student who joined the party two months ago and threw his hat in the ring because nobody else would. Razor was right, the votes were important in the ‘burbs, in the country, in inner city Melbourne, you name it they counted.
In a stroke of campaigning genius I am told there were large billboards of Guy all over Victoria with Abbott Dutts and Morrison next to him beaming down on the roads. Victorians do not like out-of-towners telling them their city is under siege when quite clearly it is not and crime statistics show crime rates are the lowest in 20yrs. The Looters heavy negative campaign on race and crime did not work-how will that put food on the table and pay off the mortgage?. Another stroke of genius was to have nice calm Sudanese door-knocking. No newspaper stories from Dutts and Morrison yet on anybody being attacked! Labor is hoping Morrison will campaign heavily on refugees, borders and terrorists in May…..people aren’t stupid! Obviously they will not mention debt this time around!
No sympathy for them BASSMAN “Baptistes Acme Public Relations” offered our services. We had on hand a “Sudanese Rent a Crowd” ready to hit the streets in the two days leading up to the election. Nothing serious, lots of work for glaziers and a bit of noise and biff with each other. . All at a very reasonable cost. They knocked us back and the rest is history.
To be honest they weren’t Sudanese exactly but we felt we could assure the campaign planners they would pass muster.
those green dreams done with?
So, based on Labor’s main reason for success in yesterday’s poll, all the Morrison government needs to get back on track, is to locate a handful of level crossings to remove and they’ll be a shoe in.
Beautiful Carl spoken like a fellow QLDer, cut right to the chase immediately. Cheers
Well it will definitely get done now that they are marginal seats!!! Hypocrisy abounds. Situation normal.
Well said British PM in Waiting, Boris Johnson, as he likens Ms. Mays shocking Brexit mess to the voyage of the Titanic.
“Some” Political Pygmies cant see that Boris is just a few “heartbeats” as it were from the top job at 10 Downing Street, and deservedly so too imho.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6PvmmyPiKS8
The Titanic was a “recreational water craft.”? The man’s an idiot. Boris might well lead England, right up sh*t creek without a paddle.
Bless you, Mr. Baptiste could it be that you don’t like Boris because he and my Donald are best buddies? Cheers
I don’t dislike either of them Henry, clearly they are both pompous idiots but that doesn’t mean I dislike them. The Donald, who is also a chauvinist pig has just had his fat arse handed to him on a plate by a child who schooled the old fool up on the difference between climate and weather, after his childish trite comment on current wintery weather events.
Kind regards.
Goodness so you do like Donald, Mr. Babptiste well that is fabulous to hear. Cheers
Safer now without the melting icebergs, Jean, Keep your chins up old girl.
It’s the “Milton Science Showwwwwwwwww! prezzzzzzented by “Alternate Universe Studiooooooos”
read:https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/apr/06/huge-fleet-icebergs-north-atlantic-shipping-lanes
All sorts of interesting developments have happened since you last on the planet Milton. Radar! Wait till you find out about radar!
I adore the idiot Henry. The Donald and the idiots that elected him have helped me in what is an adaption of “How I Learned To Stop Worrying and Love The Bomb.” Obviously AGW.
We have no hope and I just wish Trump would be around long enough to lead us into oblivion just to hear who he is going to blame next. I expect when we are in the direst of times it will be the Iranian penguins behind superstorms and starvation. We could at least go out laughing which is kind of brave and stoic don’t you think?
The thought of Boris and Trump leading major powers in the same world is frightening
fksticks bojo on the boat as ballast
Wait there’s more, Mr insider, as we have a dual winner of my 2018 “Captain Edward Smith Titanic” Award as we read: ” NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian has brushed off the Victorian state election result as a “distraction” ahead of the local March poll, telling voters NSW “stands on its own two feet”.
Goodness sweet Gladys is with the Pixies indeed a most deserving winner.
Thanks for coming Gladys.
https://tinyurl.com/y775hovw
Lao Tzu says:
NOVEMBER 23, 2018 AT 1:25 PM….your answer…from previous blog…I don’t see anybody returning their pink batts? Yep a resounding success. The 2012 report into the “pink batts fiasco” stated that by 2020, the insulation scheme would save at least 38 petajoules of energy (equivalent to lighting all Australian households for one and a half years) and avoid 14 Mt of CO2-e greenhouse gas emissions. Sadly but predictably, Abbott climbed over the bodies of dead men and their families to win votes over this issue. The home insulation program has saved the Nation over $7 billion in energy costs and helped to reduce emission from coal fired stations which has skyrocketed since the Looters started paying polluters to pollute with taxpayer money . Hundreds of workplace deaths occurred during 1996-2007 under Howard’s PM ship. No $23million Royal Commissions into any of them. Wonder why? Prior to the pink batts insulation scheme being introduced, there was one house fire for every 765 insulation instalments under the Liberals. Under Labor’s pink batts scheme, there was one fire for every 6,158 installations.