Whether governments fall or remain on the Treasury benches, the smart punter can cash in on individual seat betting in federal elections. That is where the value always lies.
While the head to head markets did shift last week (Labor in to $1.25 from $1.40, Coalition out from $2.40 to $3.50), the individual seat markets barely moved at all. Punters might have thought it was too early or indeed they might have been so fixated on the car crash within the Liberal Party they ran out of time to have a lash.
Individual seat betting markets have only just started to reflect the events of last week and the impact on the broad electorate. If political punters are going to have a bet on the next federal election, now is the time because the value is not likely to last. The downside to this approach is the heightened risk associated with punting on the outcome of an election that may be eight months away. Scott Morrison might stage a comeback, the swings against the Coalition may well be less than expected or nothing at all.
Full column here.
BTW, been busy and only yesterday used a different device, as the police reports call it, to access this blog.
apologies for the repetitive post, the version I was looking had me thinking the earlier posts had fallen into the abyss.
JB, not fixated on nice, merely pointing out that the source of ten years of toxic politics is largely Kevin and Malcolm
me, I like politics played robustly, to say the least.
cheers to all
She has died. Just a dreadful accident
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-08-29/footballer-margaret-varcoe-in-critical-condition-after-clash/10176772
Tragic. Never feel comfortable watching the ladies doing contact sports. Walked out of a Muay Thai tournament one night when the ladies bouts began. Just doesn’t seem right.
Goodness me, Mr Insider looks like we may be building up to “Au Pairgate” as another revelation slaps us in the kisser. Our sensitivities are being tested by the Abbott/ Turnbull/ Morrison government!
Possibly “someone” may end up “Duttonating”
https://tinyurl.com/yc73vrqy
Side issue: Trump has been complaining that Google is deliberately having a go at him. Fake news etc. Someone else today typed ‘idiot’ into Google images and the result suggests that there might be something in his complaint. Trump-a-rama! I tried the same with Bing and the outcome was quite different. Had to wait for row 4 for a Trump picture. there were just two on the row, separated by another. In the middle was…Tony Abbott.
TV
Silicon Valley is a left wing echo chamber.
One can get banished for having different poetical views.
It is these clowns who are writing the algorithms.
There is a lot in what he is saying.
There is no way the Looters will lose Wentworth but Morrison has bigger problems. When every poll clearly demonstrates that voters embrace climate change and renewable energy, (latest Lowy poll 84% support renewables)
what does Morrison do? He appoints a climate denier and Wind Farm Basher as Energy Minister. This is madness and as Paul Kelly has written…….. political suicide. Chris Kenny calls this a wise appointment. Dunno where Woof gets this gem of an idea from.
BELLA: Went along to the discussion between Quentin Beresford (The Rise and Fall of Gunns) and Bob Brown tonight. Quentin’s latest book is Adani and the War against Coal.
It was certainly an eye-opener and the book would be worth reading. Points that struck me tonight are:
a) The immense size of the mine. The size of Great Britain.
b)It will create the biggest hole ever made on this planet apart from a meteor hit.
c) It will probably drain the entire Great Artesian Basin
d) the emissions created by that coal wherever it goes to spells disaster for the planet
e)Corporate corruption and politics are now so intertwined that it has become the norm. We are certainly seeing that in Tasmania at the moment on other issues.
f) The new government is pro coal – but Shorten, although he may say nice things about renewables (depending on where he is) it should be noted that the ALP is completely silent on the subject of coal exports. The CFMMEU is a significant player.
g) Adani is battling to get funding. But should he pull out, Gina Rhinehart and Palmer are waiting in the wings.
h) The mine is totally dependant on the railway line being built. No railway, no mine – for any of them. That is crucial.
i) Should the latter get the go ahead, this country will see the biggest peaceful protest in it’s history – eclipsing the Franklin River. People will form a line of cars driving up to Mackay from all over the country.
j) Bob is confident that people power can stop it. So is Quentin Beresford.
So the message is – get the message out and start writing to your Lib and ALP politicians. Bob says it does make a difference in Canberra. And read the book.
Boa:
a) The size of Great Britain? Bollocks. What drug is this guy on?
b) Hmmmm
c) More bollocks. It cannot drain the GAB uphill from the NE extremity
If this bloke really said that stuff I wouldn’t trust a single thing he says. And I applaud the demise of Gunns.
So I’ve Googled Dr Beresford and found that he’s coming to the ANU to spruik his book in a couple of weeks. Ok, I’ve signed up to go along. I trust that you have misreported him somewhat Boa (e.g. it’s the Galilee Basin that’s the size of Britain, not the friggin’ mine!) But I will be happy to have a go at him if he isn’t within an envelope that is broadly factual. Distortion and exaggeration is, unfortunately, the stock in trade of many green movements and it has to be called out if we are to get anywhere. It’s the green equivalent of the African gang exaggerations.
Don’t think that this makes me an Adani supporter. I’m a no-bullshit supporter. And, unlike almost everyone else in the country, I’ve had dealings with Adani (and found them to be pretty hopeless – tits and bulls come to mind).
Boadicea, you’re a gem. Thank-you for taking the time to send that post, it’s appreciated.
I would’ve loved to be there with you taking it all in.
Hats off to a real man among men, a champion for our natural world, Bob Brown. I so hope he’s right about people power in this case because the alternative wreckage is unthinkable especially the unlimited water.
Meantime mate, I’m still doing my thing to help shutdown this mine & tomorrow’s huge rally at the BC&EC at South Bank kicks off in the morning under #Not One Drop 4 Adani-Defend our Water. We’re calling for the prosecution of Adani for breaking Qld Environment Laws, the cancellation of the unlimited water licence from the Galilee Basin & the important protection of Native Title of Traditional Owners.
I’ve lost count of the polite but direct emails & formal letters I have sent to a few politicians over the years & half the time you get the stock-standard “the minister will respond in due course…” and the rest go unanswered except once, the office of the Hon. Greg Hunt sent a reply to the effect that his government is absolutely against whaling in the SO Sanctuary blah blah….we are disappointed that Japan continues this activity.
That’s it so I sent an impolite response; “You are cowards.” No further reply…pfft.
But I’ll enter the fray once more by mail & I’ll let others know that Bob’s asked for support.
Why is it that natural habitats & environmental protections always come off second best against already wealthy politicians owned and controlled by big corporate magnates? They are never satisfied they just want more.
Preserving privilege for the privileged few & stuff everyone else.
Boa, the Galilee basin might be the size of G.B.,, but that includes a lot of real estate where there is no coal. Besides, Adani would not hold the mining lease for all that 247,000 sq klms.
Just drilled an exploration gas well close to the Adani camp recently, the guy at your lecture sounds he was being sensationalist for effect , as often happens in these cases.
As for draining the artesian basin basin, puhlease. The old quote, ‘Don’t let truth get in the way of a good yarn applies here’ methinks.
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Now who’s pooping all over Dutton???
Advice is simply that.
“Big stick ,Intervention, divestment powers, further subsidisation and direct taxpayers funding of unreliable dirty expensive coal fired generation” This spells Sovereign Risk in Capital letters. Every piece of Evidence, data, research and now power bills Prove More Renewables = Lower Energy Cost. The only people who for ideology refuse to acknowledge this is the conservative coalition Government and their delusional bizarro world supporters. Worst Government in Nations history Odds on. No surprises.
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You ok, Razor? Having problems getting comments up?