Humble servant of the Nation

A punter’s guide to the next federal election

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Whether governments fall or remain on the Treasury benches, the smart punter can cash in on individual seat betting in federal elections. That is where the value always lies.

While the head to head markets did shift last week (Labor in to $1.25 from $1.40, Coalition out from $2.40 to $3.50), the individual seat markets barely moved at all. Punters might have thought it was too early or indeed they might have been so fixated on the car crash within the Liberal Party they ran out of time to have a lash.

Individual seat betting markets have only just started to reflect the events of last week and the impact on the broad electorate. If political punters are going to have a bet on the next federal election, now is the time because the value is not likely to last. The downside to this approach is the heightened risk associated with punting on the outcome of an election that may be eight months away. Scott Morrison might stage a comeback, the swings against the Coalition may well be less than expected or nothing at all.

Full column here.

92 Comments

  • Dismayed says:

    What are the odds of the conservative coalition ever recognising their disgraceful hypocrisy?? Petraeus is ok because he raises donations for the coalition Manning is not. Usual FN disgrace that this government is. No Surprises.
    “David Petraeus is also a convicted criminal. The former soldier and head of the CIA was convicted in 2015 of leaking classified information to his girlfriend Paula Broadwell with whom he was having an extramarital affair. Unlike the information leaked by Manning, which the US government admitted at trial had caused no damage to national security, the material leaked to Petraeus was highly sensitive and contained “identities of covert officers, code word information, war strategy, intelligence capabilities, diplomatic talks.” Petraeus also lied to the FBI about the documents.”

  • wraith says:

    From now on, Scomo should be known by his real knickname “Mad-dog Morrison”, always has been!

    • Jean Baptiste says:

      There was a dyslexic insomniac who spent his nights staring at the ceiling wondering if there is a dog.

      Mad dog or God mad, both work for me. He’s a bit undershot in the jaw if you’re looking for a clue as to what sort of dog.

    • Carl on the Coast says:

      You’re barking up the wrong tree Wraith.

    • Bella says:

      Displaying obvious ‘intelligence’ this accidental PM was the idiot who tossed around a lump of coal in Parliament & it’s that kind of madness
      that earned him that name.
      A change without progress is no change at all.

    • JackSprat says:

      Wraith

      We all complain about about the state of politics and politicians.
      Name calling does absolute nothing and is a bit juvenile.
      How about hitting the policies instead of the person for a change?

  • Carl on the Coast says:

    That pesky desandliz is still hanging around Jack.

  • Jean Baptiste says:

    Henry Blofeld, get onto your mate in the White House Henry. This is not good for the cred, leaving Donald out of the loop. Threaten them with sanctions, cant have the vassals cosying up without authorisation from the Big Copper.

  • Jean Baptiste says:

    The new PM manages to patronise, insult if you like, a whole lot of people with Abbotts appointment. Not the least Abbott, secretly fuming one hopes.
    Perhaps the indigenous people could get a bit of their own back in the patronising stakes by awarding Abbott, for official duties, a tin breast plate to hang around his neck, inscribed “We Asked for a Treaty and We Got This Clown.” *

    *Lifted that from Facebook.

    • Johnno says:

      If anyone watched Joe Williams on the Drum last night I think they would get a real insight to how indigenous folk feel about this. An impressive guy I thought.
      Johnno

    • Henry Donald J Blofeld says:

      Its the old saying Mr Baptiste, “keep your friends close and your enemies closer”. Cheers

    • Wissendorf says:

      Patronising was ceding land back to the indigenous people, and then putting a heap of caveats on that land. It can’t be mined, logged, farmed, leased, sold or turned to any economic benefit beyond tourism. We whitefellas apparently know more about managing the land they’ve managed for millenia than they do. Whitefellas still running the show. That’s patronising.

  • Carl on the Coast says:

    “Power prices before Paris”. Yeah, that may work for the punters.

    • Bella says:

      It’s yet another demented brainwashing exercise by the puppets of the filfthy coal industry Carl. Renewable energy is the answer to lowering power prices and well they know it but their donors won’t allow them to tell the ‘punters’ anything close to the truth about price rises.

    • Jean Baptiste says:

      Yes, don’t die poorer than you need to be, just sooner.

    • Bella says:

      http://amp.abc.net.au/article/10185142
      The Samoan PM may have hit on a treatment for climate deniers…..
      “mental confinement”….I say let’s not waste any time, just give it a shot with Morrison & the rest of his dirty coal puppets.

  • Tracy says:

    Shouldn’t be an issue what female pollies wear but beautiful pair of bright red heels Julie clearly stating “stuff you” to the boys club.
    The only consistent performer out of any of them.

    • Boadicea says:

      Great, wasn’t it!

      JTI – if she had won the spill do you think she had a chance of beating Bill at the next election?

    • Jean Baptiste says:

      Outperforming the blokes! Bloody poor form, chaps give the girls an inch and they take a mile. The lass has to understand that Liberal in this instance means conservative. None of that nonsense from the fairer sex please.

    • Dismayed says:

      did she click her heels three times and say there’s no place like home, there’s not place like home there’s no place like home? The Liberal party have told us today that bullying is their way and if you cant handle it don’t join them. Why should a democracy be free of bullying, it is the conservative and right wing way. No Surprises.

    • Carl on the Coast says:

      If she’d taken a leaf out of Chautauqua’s book she’d probably still have the FA’s gig. She only has herself to blame for jumping the gun Tracy. And do you really think the boys give a stuff?

      • Tracy says:

        She was asked if she wanted to keep foreign affairs, do keep up

      • Boadicea says:

        She may be smarter than that Carl. Didn’t want to be a part of the resultant mess when it became clear that Turnbull was gone. If she doesn’t get offered the GG gig, or refuses it, she may well go for leadership in opposition – and prove herself as a future PM.

  • Henry Donald J Blofeld says:

    The battle for the Federal Seat of Wentworth is heating up, Mr. Insider. Vacated as of tomorrow, Friday, by ex-ousted PM Turnbull I do feel Dr. Keryn Phelps is worth a tidy wager to greet the judge. May the best Man/Woman win and thanks for coming Malcolm who we read is off to New York with his Lucy. Big Mal is still spitting phlegm and bile over the way he was removed, forgetting of course he did the same to ex-ousted PM Abbott who can’t stop smiling.
    Reports the Federal Libs are running very low on cash and they just sacked their No1 Fundraiser in Turnbull. Strewth.
    https://tinyurl.com/y7rno7yz

    • Jack The Insider says:

      Malcolm donated a lot of his own money. JBish was the biggest fund raiser and shes on the back bench. Wentworth will swing hard against the Libs but I doubt by the 17 per cent required to lose the seat.

    • Bella says:

      I don’t recall who interviewed Dr Phelps last year but I do remember that she left me with the clear impression that she was pretty honest & smart, a real force of a woman. Who knows, perhaps as an Independent, she may win Wentworth off the toffs. 😉

      • Boadicea says:

        I think she has a strong chance Bella.
        I think there will be a swing to Independents because most are pissed off with the other mobs – and she seems a really good candidate

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